985
FXUS65 KBOU 021127
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
427 AM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow showers continue through this afternoon, with
  locally moderate accumulations in the Park Range and parts of
  the northern mountains.

- No meaningful precipitation expected for lower elevations
  through at least Wednesday, with continued warm/dry conditions.

- Breezier winds forecast today in the high country and plains;
  More widespread Sunday, with increased fire danger for lower
  elevations and foothills.

- Signs of transition to wetter and colder pattern around Thursday
  of next week, but with plenty of uncertainty.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 427 AM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

On and off mountain snow showers continue early this morning, with
observations from SNOTELs and ski cameras suggesting most of this
snow has been fairly light overnight, outside of a couple of brief
bursts of moderate to heavy snow over portions of the Park Range.
Guidance does have a few more periods of light to moderate snow
during the morning hours today, with a gradual weakening trend
this afternoon into the evening hours. The current headlines are
fine and were not changed.

Across the plains, another mild day is expected with highs pushing
60F yet again. Tomorrow should be quieter across the region as a
weak ridge axis moves overhead.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 141 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

Elevated moisture has begun to intrude into the high country,
with some spillover into the foothills and urban corridor. Low-
levels have moistened enough to support development of light snow
showers in the higher elevations, and as expected also some
isolated virga and a few rain drops along and west of I-25. Not
much change is anticipated into the evening, with continued light
snow in the mountains which won`t amount to much accumulation.

Snow will increase in our northern mountains tonight and Friday
with the arrival of more robust flow aloft, leading to 3-9" of
accumulation for most of the Park Range, with a few localized
totals potentially surpassing 10" for the highest elevations.
Forcing will remain too weak for comparable impacts along the
Continental Divide and particularly southward into the I-70
mountain corridor, with the latter expected to receive around 1-3"
for most locations above ~9,500 ft. Breezier conditions will
materialize over the higher terrain through Friday too, extending
into our northeast plains in the afternoon with a weak and dry
frontal passage. Temperatures should be approximately 2-5 degrees
cooler Friday given the cold air advection and cloud cover.

High pressure returns this weekend, pushing low elevation highs
above 60F again Saturday, and peaking Sunday when we`ll be close
to daily records. Dry conditions will be favored, although a few
very light showers can`t be ruled out in our high country Sunday as
a subtle shortwave approaches. Behind said shortwave, enhanced
westerly flow associated with a jet max will increase cross-
barrier winds to around 50 kts by sunrise Sunday. As of yet
there`s no real indication of either a critical or stable layer in
model guidance, but cross-sections do favor limited or even
reverse shear profiles above 600mb. With QG subsidence in place,
at lease some eastward spread of breezier winds into the lower
foothills and adjacent lower elevations appears likely (~70%
chance), with peak gust potential mostly in the 40-60 mph range
outside of the most wind-prone mountain/foothills locations, which
could see a few gusts near 70 mph. The subsident flow regime and
warm temperatures will allow for relatively dry conditions from
the foothills eastward, so there`s potential for a brief window
of near-critical to locally critical fire weather conditions if
there`s sufficient alignment between ingredients.

The strengthening southwest flow aloft will provide for increased
precipitation chances in our mountains Monday and Tuesday, with
just an outside chance (~20%) for some light showers surviving
into the lower elevations. Temperatures should see a steady
decline beginning Monday and continuing through midweek.

Ensembles over the past 24-48 hours have appeared slightly more
excited about the prospect of winter weather returning to the
lower elevations as early as Thursday, January 8th, along with a
transition to a colder pattern thereafter. Is it one of the more
robust signals we`ve seen for low-elevation snow since early
December? Yes. Have we seen such signals fade over the course of a
week only to end up dry? Also yes. In summary: ensemble guidance
suggests that you should keep coming back to read our discussions
and see how things evolve. In the meantime, enjoy the mild
temperatures!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/...
Issued at 427 AM MST Fri Jan 2 2026

VFR through the TAF period. Light drainage flow this morning
should eventually transition to a northwest wind by this
afternoon, before drainage takes over again later this evening.
There will be varying amounts of mid to high cloud cover, but no
ceiling or visibility concerns are anticipated through Saturday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ031-
033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hiris
DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...Hiris

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion