564
FXUS65 KBOU 150528
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1128 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather continues through this weekend.

- Prolonged hot and dry conditions will bring fire weather
  concerns, although we`ll likely stay shy of Red Flag criteria.

- Monsoonal moisture initially lacking with only isolated to
  scattered afternoon/early evening storms in the mountains
  through Saturday. Dry plains.

- More significant monsoonal moisture and cooler temperatures
  expected toward Monday and Tuesday, when a threat of locally
  heavy rainfall arrives.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The rinse and repeat (without the rain, of course) forecast will
hold strong through Friday. The elongated ridge extending from he
lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio River Valley through the Central
Rockies will essentially reorganize and center itself over
Wyoming and Colorado again by Friday and Saturday. This means a
continuation of light, dry, and subsident easterly flow over the
forecast area. There is slight moderation in the low/mid level
thermal ridges as this reorganization occurs, leading to just a
couple degrees of cooling in most areas Wednesday through Friday.
That still means well above normal temperatures with highs mostly
in the mid 90s for the plains and I-25 Urban Corridor, mostly 80s
for the foothills and high valleys, and upper 60s and 70s higher
mountains.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms can still be expected in
the mountains most days, as the high country will reside on the
edge of weak monsoonal moisture and instability. Meanwhile, the
plains will remain too dry and subsident with mostly clear skies
prevailing. Southeast breezes, in conjunction with the heat and
stress on vegetation, means persistent risk of fire growth and
potentially long burn periods well into the evening hours each
day. That`s despite staying below Red Flag conditions as the wind
component won`t reach thresholds in the mountains, while the
humidity component will remain above thresholds over the breezier
plains along/east of I-25.

Things get more interesting early next week as we are now more
certain of the eventual arrival of monsoonal moisture. Model
ensembles show just a slight uptick toward Sunday, but a greater
push of moisture by Monday and Tuesday. That means a higher
chance of showers and storms across the forecast area, along with
an increasing threat of locally heavy rainfall. Deep layer
moisture is advertised to increase with ensemble average
precipitable water (PW) values increasing to around 1 inch for
Denver by Sunday, and then up to 1.2 inches by Monday. At the same
time, we`ll likely see a front push southward with an increase in
upslope flow which typically focuses more widespread shower/storm
coverage near the Front Range. Of course there will be the usual
challenges of stability in this environment, but it`s certainly
looking like a much more active weather pattern. The increased
convection and front(s) also support cooler temperatures (highs
likely in the 80s for the plains) by Tuesday. There may be even
greater chances of heavy rainfall outside of this forecast period
(toward the middle of next week), so we`ll keep an eye on this
potentially significant transition from hot and dry weather to wet
and stormy.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR through Thursday. Deep but weak easterly flow will also keep
the smoke away from the terminals at all heights. Convective
chances near the terminals are basically zero into Thursday given
easterly flow preventing storms from moving off the terrain to
the west. So really, it`s about the winds. Tonight, continued
strong SE winds will eventually weaken to turn to the south,
especially in the next 2-4 hours. We still expect speeds to be
around 10-15kt at APA and DEN, 10 kts or less at BJC. South winds
will weaken after 13/14Z, and go southwest then light and variable
until midday. By midday ESE winds should be the norm, gusting
around 20 kts much of the afternoon into evening. Like the last
few nights, robust southeast winds gusting over to 25 kts are
expected at the terminals during the evening hours before going
to drainage out of the south (and not as strong) after 08Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...Schlatter

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion