095
FXUS65 KBOU 031119
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
519 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances will continue today with isolated severe
  storms over the plains along with locally heavy rain.

- Trending warmer and drier for Thursday and Friday with only a
  slight chance of thunderstorms.

- Afternoon high temps to reach the 90s across the plains by the
  end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 251 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Weak westerly flow aloft will be over the area today.  At the sfc, a
convergence zone will develop from southeast of Denver extending
northeast across the plains. Should see scat tstms develop along
this convergence zone by mid aftn with activity moving slowly
eastward across the plains by early evening. SBCAPE will range
from 1500-2000 j/kg over the plains, however, shear will be weak.
Thus, expect main threat from the tstms would be heavy rainfall,
although a few marginal svr storms would be possible as well.
Further west along the I-25 Corridor, there will be a chc of
higher based showers and storms. Highs this aftn will be in the
upper 70`s to mid 80`s across the plains.

On Thu, westerly flow aloft will continue with decent instability
over the far nern plains by aftn.  Further west, the airmass will be
drier with lower SBCAPE.  Overall will keep in a slight chc of tstms
over the far nern plains with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. Highs
will be in the mid 80`s to lower 90s across the plains.

Little change is expected on Fri as nearly zonal flow remains in
place.  There will be a weak cool front moving across nern CO in the
morning which may keep highs a few degrees lower than Thu.  At this
time, tstm chances look rather low on Fri.

For the weekend, the flow aloft will become more WSW.  Latest data
has some moisture embedded in the flow which may be enough to
produce isold high based showers and storms over the higher terrain.
Across the plains will keep fcst mainly dry on Sat but include a
slight chc for storms on Sun.  Highs for the weekend will be in the
90`s across nern CO.

By early next week, the flow aloft will be mainly from the SW.  The
models have varying amounts of moisture embedded in the flow so will
leave in a slight chc of tstms for now.  Temperatures should remain
remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/...
Issued at 515 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Winds were light south early this morning but will shift to a
light NW/N direction by 17z. Winds by 19z will then become NE.
Sct tstms will move across between 20z and 00z with brief gusty
winds up to 40 mph possible. Ceilings may briefly drop down to
8000 ft as the storms move across. By 00Z the tstm threat should
end with winds becoming southeast.  Drainage winds will develop
after 03z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...RPK

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion