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401 FXUS65 KBOU 240623 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1223 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer today and Monday. - Isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and early evening hours today and Monday. Rainfall will be light. - Remaining mild next week, with scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms expected most days. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 1223 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026 For today, an upper level ridge will be over Colorado. Temperatures will continue to warm with highs in the lower to mid 80s across northeast Colorado. Enough moisture will be present under the ridge for isolated/scattered high-based showers. A few weak storms are also possible. Outflow winds up to 30 mph and light rainfall are expected with the showers/storms. An upper level trough moves onto the southern California coast tonight and early Monday. It then progresses east over the Desert Southwest. This will nudge the ridge east of Colorado Monday with southerly flow aloft prevailing. Temperatures will remain warm with highs reaching the 80s across northeast Colorado. A few low 90s will be possible over the northeast plains. The southerly flow aloft will help transport moisture into the area. Best moisture will be over the mountains where scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible east of the mountains. On Tuesday, a large upper level low moves southeast across the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin. The upper level trough over the Desert Southwest will eject northeast across Colorado on Tuesday. As it lifts northeastward, it will weaken. Moisture still increases for Tuesday bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms to the higher terrain with scattered showers and storms for the Front Range and eastern plains later on Tuesday. Temperatures will cool a little, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s over northeast Colorado. For Wednesday through Saturday, the upper level low stalls over the Great Basin on Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, models show the low weakens and lifts northeast into the Northern Rockies. South to southwest flow aloft will continue over Colorado with weak ridging possible over eastern Colorado Thursday and Friday. Decent moisture is expected to remain over eastern Colorado. The daily chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue under this pattern, though the ridging could limit the amount of storm activity Thursday and Friday. Southwest flow aloft is expected for Saturday, though the placement of shortwaves is still unclear. Temperatures Saturday are expected to be near normal, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/... Issued at 1223 AM MDT Sun May 24 2026 VFR to prevailthrough the TAF period. South to southwest drainage winds will continue at APA and DEN through 15Z Sunday. After this, models show winds weaken with some modelsshowing them turning northwest to northeast. While others just show light and variable winds.Will go with light and variable winds through mid afternoon (21Z), followed by northwest winds at DEN as outflow from convection off to the west moves through. The threat for outflow from high-based showers will continue into the early evening 02-03Z. Will go with a PROB30 for the showers and outflow wind threat. Wind speeds from the outflows don`t look too strong, reaching up to 30 knots. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...12