National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

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859
FXUS65 KBOU 041955
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
155 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy with elevated fire weather conditions for the northeast
  plains through the early evening.

- Dry with a gradual warming trend through the middle of next week
  (outside of Monday). Elevated to critical fire weather
  conditions likely return by Wednesday (60% chance).

- Unsettled weather returns for the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Relatively quiet weather is expected through Monday morning as weak
ridging aloft dominates the weather pattern, with a surface high
pressure sinking into the Great Plains. It is breezy across our
northern and eastern plains, with current surface observations
showing northwest gusts up to 45 mph at times. Expect those winds to
gradually weaken after sunset. Warm and dry conditions will prevail
through the weekend, with good guidance agreement of temperatures
reaching up to the mid-to-high 60s on Sunday. Overnight Sunday/early
Monday morning, a backdoor cold front will cool temperatures
slightly for the plains. However, models are struggling on how to
handle how far west the cooler temperatures are advected, as the
ECMWF ensemble guidance continues to be about 8F warmer than the
GEFS. With these scenarios, the front typically is able to make it
all the way to the base of the foothills. For this reason, have
continued to keep max temperatures lower than NBM guidance. Most of
the plains will likely see temperatures in the high 50s/low 60s,
rather than upper 60s.

By Monday afternoon, the upper level ridge will begin to flatten
over the Rockies as a 500-mb low enters the northwestern United
States. With a little bit of moisture embedded in the westerly flow,
there could be scattered light snow showers (30-40% chance) for our
southern mountains. Some ensemble solutions in the GEFS/EPS even
show rain showers for the northeastern plains Monday evening (

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion