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277 FXUS65 KBOU 052325 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 525 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and unseasonably warm through at least Saturday, with record/near record warmth on Monday. - Isolated showers possible (15-30% chance) for the higher elevations Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitation, if any, will be highly localized. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 1147 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Clear, sunny skies greet us this morning as we head into what should be our warmest day this week. The upper level ridge that`s been overhead the last couple days continues to sit over the Rockies, keeping subsidence and downsloping winds over the area. Thanks to warmer temperatures in the mid-levels (850-700mb) and those downsloping winds, temperatures today should reach into the upper 80s for much of the urban corridor and plains, with high temps possibly reaching into the low 90s for portions of the northern plains. The record high temperature for Denver on October 5 is 87F, and it`s likely (~70%) that we`ll at least tie that record today. Tomorrow`s temps will continue to trend above normal, though a few degrees cooler than today thanks to some expected cloud cover. A weak disturbance in the ridge Tuesday and Wednesday could bring the chance for isolated showers over the higher elevations in the afternoon both days, mainly in Park and Clear Creek Counties. The rest of the week should remain warm and dry, with temperatures staying about 10-15 degrees above normal through Saturday. As of the latest model guidance, Sunday should be when we start to cool back off, with a cooler, possibly wetter pattern settling in by Monday as an upper-level trough pushes into the region. While models are in fairly good agreement on the timing of this trough, there`s a lot of uncertainty as to how deep the trough becomes and how much moisture it pulls in, both of which will affect what weather impacts we see next Monday and Tuesday. Interestingly, the latest ECMWF runs have the remnants of what is currently Hurricane Rachel getting dragged to the northeast and pulled into the area along the downstream side of the trough. The GFS, on the other hand, keeps Hurricane Rachel on a northwesterly path, away from any interaction with the trough, which could mean we see less significant weather impacts associated with this system. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/... Issued at 525 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. There is a ~10% chance of a virga shower this evening, which could briefly produce some gusty winds. Winds are slowly turning to southerly this evening around 10 kts. Winds will become drainage later this evening and stay slightly elevated at 10-12 kts with a few gusts up to 15 kts possible for KDEN and KAPA. KBJC should keep a westerly component through the overnight and remain under 10 kts. Winds are expected to turn to the northeast tomorrow midday and then slowly turn clockwise through the afternoon before becoming drainage tomorrow evening. There will be a ~20% chance for a virga shower tomorrow afternoon, which could produce gusty and erratic winds. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGS AVIATION...MV