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999 FXUS65 KBOU 032003 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 203 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances will continue today with an isolated severe storm or two over the plains with damaging winds the primary threat. - Trending warmer and drier for Thursday and Friday with only a slight chance of thunderstorms. - Afternoon high temps to reach the mid 90s across the plains this weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026 Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over far southeast Colorado with plenty of high level moisture. This is helping to produce high level cirrus clouds across the I-25 corridor and eastern plains. Temperatures are lagging the hourly forecast temperatures by 1-3 F and instability may end up being slightly lower than modeled especially from Denver International Airport and eastward and southward. Water vapor also shows a shortwave trough over far northwest Colorado which is approaching the northwestern side of our CWA. This is providing some forcing to help develop storms over the mountains of Colorado. Storms in Larimer and Weld Counties may grow strong this afternoon with strong wind gusts around 55 mph possible. A severe wind gust of 60 mph or two could be reported but this is not a day with an organized severe threat due to limited wind shear. Another area of storms may form on a boundary currently in Elbert and eastern Adams and Arapahoe Counties. Later this evening, a cluster of storms will eventually work its way through Morgan and Logan Counties before largely dissipating before it reaches further eastward. The shortwaves will move east of Colorado on Thursday with slight ridging building in aloft. There will be some morning low clouds or fog in Lincoln and Elbert Counties but the impacts from that will be minimal. The slight ridging aloft will help turn 700 mb winds to the west across the plains with warmer temperatures than today. These conditions will allow the majority of the moisture to mix out across the I-25 corridor and plains tomorrow leading to warm temperatures in the upper 80s and drier conditions. Isolated showers and storms may still develop late tomorrow afternoon/evening but most of these will have more wind than rain within them. Models have decent agreement that storms in Wyoming and Nebraska will produce an outflow boundary Thursday night that will move through northeast Colorado Friday morning. This will keep conditions very slightly cooler on Friday in our forecast area and will increase moisture. There will be healthy instability across the plains although it will largely be capped. While there is not much support from model guidance to show there will be scattered thunderstorms, it seems more likely than not, strong to potentially severe storms will develop in Elbert and Lincoln Counties Friday afternoon. Flow aloft over the western US will become much more amplified this weekend. A trough will move onshore over the West Coast and a ridge will strengthen and expand over the central US. Colorado will be under the western edge of this ridge which will lead to compressional heating. High temperatures will soar into the mid 90s in the urban corridor this weekend. The high could get close to setting a record in Denver with the current forecast of 94 being 1 degree shy of the daily record of 95. A record high likely won`t be set on Sunday as the daily record high is 98. Monday will likely be cooler with scattered storms around. There will be a severe threat on Monday but it is too early to tell the areas that will be most impacted and the strength of the storms. A mini early season heat wave is possible across northeast Colorado Tuesday through Thursday of next week. The 75th percentile on the ECMWF ensembles has a high of 100 F in Denver for Wednesday and Thursday of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/... Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Isolated thunderstorms have been occurring in the foothills this morning with GOES satellite imagery showing increasing cloud cover for all three sites. By this afternoon, thunderstorms are possible moving from west to east across the three terminals starting around 20z and ending around 24z. Any thunderstorms could produce gusty winds above 30 kts and briefly lowering clouds to around 8000 feet AGL. Tonight, drainage winds are expected and should be below 10 kts. Tomorrow will feature increasing high level clouds once again by midday with winds generally northerly. For tomorrow afternoon, model soundings show dry lower levels and DCAPE of around 1000 J/kg. Therefore, have introduced a prob30 for some virga showers that could produce gusty outflow winds to around 30 kts. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Danielson AVIATION...MV