544
FXUS65 KBOU 061937
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1237 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry with well above normal temperatures through Monday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions expected on Saturday with a Red
  Flag Warning in effect for the northeast plains of Colorado.

- A pattern change is coming next week with multiple chances of
  precipitation. Best chance for snow will be Wednesday into
  Thursday in the mountains. Plains are not expected to see
  significant precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 1237 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Not much change in our weather from now through Monday.  Colorado
happens to be right in between the split flow regime with a slow
moving southern stream bowling ball trough expected to move from
offshore of Baja CA today to near the Big Bend area of TX/Mexico
on Wednesday. The polar jet of course is much too far north to
bring any troughs our way short term. Thus, in between, we will
remain very warm and dry into Tuesday. First, tonight, mostly clear
skies and light winds across most of the area will result in lows
in the 20s across the plains and most mountain valleys (teens for
the cold spots), but 30s to low 40s across the eastern foothills
and adjacent plains where weak but persistent downslope winds are
expected to stay up all night long.

Saturday a robust pressure gradient sets up via a low in Nebraska.
With good mixing, WNW winds across the northeast CO plains could
gust to 35 mph, with maybe stronger gusts (40 mph+) along the WY
border north of Wellington.  RH values are expected to be close to
15% during the warmest part of the afternoon (and windiest part).
Have opted for a Red Flag Warning for the Northeast corner of
Colorado in collaboration with GLD who included Yuma County and
CYS for the NE Panhandle. Elsewhere across the plains it`s less
windy and with a tad higher RH. 700 mb temps are actually not that
warm (0degC - +1degC), but the downslope compressional warming
will be impressive resulting in highs in the mid 60s from the I-25
corridor eastward. Mountain valleys and eastern foothills should
ready the uppers 40s to low 50s. Sunday and Monday will be almost
identical to Saturday, but with less wind across the northeast
plains and no fire weather concerns either afternoon.

The pattern change we`ve been advertising for a while now gets
started Tuesday.  A northern Rockies short wave trough and another
faster moving trough off the coast of central CA attempt to phase
sometime on Tuesday.  As they do, there should be enough moisture in
the west flow ahead of the stronger trough across NoCal to start
mountain snow.  40-45 kts of flow near ridgetop combined with steep
lapse rates (which become steep late Tuesday) should get the snow
going, probably light snow maybe up to moderate for short periods
especially across the Park/Gore Ranges and the northern Front
Range by later in the day Tuesday. The first wave of snow looks
to be forced by moisture form the phasing northern trough, after
which there could be lull in mountain snow early Wednesday (but
probably still really light snow across the highest peaks/ridges),
until the main trough moves eastward. This far out the trough for
now is very positively tilted and looks to get sheared out on
Wednesday as it moves across Wyoming. For now, just light snow is
in the forecast throughout the day Wednesday in the mountains. At
the same time on Wednesday, perhaps late Wednesday, a 130-140 kt
jet is likely somewhere over Colorado, and depending on the
position of the jet, that could bring another uptick in snow
across the mountains Wednesday night into Thursday. Models overall
are in pretty good agreement with the evolution of the phasing
troughs and strong jet, but overall the amount of moisture is not
terribly impressive. Ensembles agree it is going to snow across
the high country, but at this point the mean QPF is 0.2"ish, and
a high end of 0.4" late Tuesday into Thursday for the I-70
mountain corridor. Further north, the mean is 0.3ish" with a
higher end of 0.5". If you are looking for some good news on
mountain snow, Thursday and beyond looks active for snow, at least
light snow.

What about the plains next week?  The wake of the northern trough
should force a cold front across the plains during the first half of
Tuesday.  The air behind the front looks to be dry, and only a
handful of ensemble members generate light precipitation for the I-
25 corridor and eastern plains (3-6 members of the GEFS; 1-4
members of the Euro). Thus, overall chances of precipitation are
low and even if it does precipitate, it doesn`t look significant.
When you slice and dice it using chance of exceedance, the Euro
ensemble has 0% chance of 0.1" through Thursday while the GEFS is
also 0%, and the Canadian ensemble has 10-20% chance closer to
the foothills and WY border. Suffice to say, even though the
forecast has 20-30% PoPs for the I-25 corridor and plains spread
across the much of the time window over three days, in reality
very light precip is all that would occur and probably for a
brief period of time. Wet bulb temps next week are in the mid 30s
so p-type is also uncertain if it does precipitate. High temps
each afternoon continue look above normal but less so than this
weekend, looking for now like low 50s

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1040 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF package. Light winds
will continue for the next few hours, before winds start to
increase from the southeast this afternoon for KDEN and KAPA.
Winds will gust around 20kts from the SSE at KAPA starting around
23Z and continue into the late evening. At KDEN, gusts around
19kts are expected between 02Z and 07Z this evening. Winds will
turn towards drainage around midnight for KDEN and KAPA,
eventually turning more NW and increasing in speed around 18Z
tomorrow. Models are showing a Denver Cyclone developing
near/north of Denver this afternoon, impacting winds at KBJC
today. Winds at KBJC will be light and variable for much of this
afternoon and evening. Winds will turn more westerly and
strengthen in the mid morning tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1237 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
Saturday afternoon. A strong pressure gradient from a high over
the MS valley will induce strong west-northwest winds to mix to
the surface during the afternoon hours. The strongest winds look
to be confined to along the WY border southeast across Washington
County. Expect gusts in the 30-35 mph range, and RH should bottom
out at or just below 15%. With drought conditions in place across
the northeast corner of Colorado, any fire that ignites could
spread quickly during the afternoon. Winds die down quickly with
the loss of daytime heating, and RH should rise quickly after 4
PM.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schlatter
AVIATION...AP
FIRE WEATHER...Schlatter

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion