204
FXUS65 KBOU 291119
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
519 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be present in
  the high country through Wednesday due to warm, dry and windy
  conditions.

- Little change in the forecast pattern through Friday. The only
  exception will be for a chance of thunderstorms over the plains
  on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

For today, an upper level trough will extend from the nrn Rockies
into California.  This will allow for the continuation of dry SW
flow aloft over the area. Across nern CO, another weak cool front
was moving across currently, however, low level moisture was
decreasing behind it.  Thus do not expect any tstm activity across
the plains this afternoon or tonight.  Meanwhile 850-700 temps do
cool a few degrees today so aftn highs across the plans will be in
the mid 80`s to lower 90`s

By Tue, SW flow aloft will continue as a disturbance moves from the
Great Basin into Wyoming by Tue night.  At the sfc, the low level
flow will become S/SSE across the plains as a lee trough develops
along the I-25 Corridor. As a result, this will allow some return
of lower level moisture by aftn with a pseudo dryline setting up
just east of the I-25 Corridor. Analysis of soundings continue to
show there is still a fairly decent cap in place so not sure about
how much tstm activity there will be in the aftn across the
plains. Low level moisture does continue to increase by evening
over the nern plains with MLCAPE rising to around 1500 j/kg. If
cap can be broken then may see sct tstms develop by early evening
mainly along and north of a Greeley to Fort Morgan to Akron line.
Meanwhile shear profile is favorable enough for a few marginal svr
storms. Highs on Tue will be in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s
across the plains.

For Wed thru Fri, the flow aloft will continue from the SW. Overall,
still don`t see much moisture embedded in the flow so the higher
terrain will likely remain dry.  Across the plains, a sfc lee trogh
will remain over the plains.  Although there will be some low level
moisture and favorable CAPE over portions of the plains, there is
still a decent cap.  Thus any tstm activity will probably be rather
isold.  Highs across the plains will be in the upper 80`s to mid
90`s each day.

Looking ahead to the 4th of July,  the flow aloft will become more
westerly as a weak system moves across the nrn Rockies.  This may
allow for a cool front to move across nern CO Fri night into Sat.
Depending on how much low level moisture there is behind this front
may lead to a slight chc of tstms across the plains by aftn.  Across
the higher terrain is still looks mainly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 508 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Winds were light and variable early this morning. As talked
about in previous discussion, for the late morning thru early
evening hours, once again will be dealing with a Denver cyclone
and associated shear zone. Models have been way too aggressive in
mixing out SW winds coming off the higher terrain recently and it
may happen again this aftn. The only model that seems to have a
handle on the situation is the Canadian. As a result, have trended
winds at DIA to the SE by 15z and then NE by 18z. At BJC, will
have an ENE wind by 15z and then more NE by 20Z. At APA, will have
south winds by 16z and then switching to more of a SW direction
by 20Z. For this evening, expect winds to gradually trend to
drainage by 05z or 06z.

Meanwhile, fires over UT and wrn CO will continue to advect smoke
over the area thru tonight. Currently denser smoke as seen on
satellite and observations is from ern Boulder county extending
north to the WY border. HRRR smoke shows another surge of smoke
coming in by mid to late aftn and covering the area tonight. Near
sfc smoke is fcst to worsen tonight into Tue morning. Have kept
smoke in the TAF`s and there could be some slantwise visibility
issues at some point, especially tonight, but still not sure on
timing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue across
the higher terrain this afternoon into the early evening hours.

Tuesday will see more elevated to critical fire weather conditions
over the hgher terrain so have issued a Fire Weather Watch for the
afternoon into the early evening hours.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions look likely to
continue across most of the higher elevations through Friday,
with the potential for some of the warmest/driest air to reach the
area by late in the week. There is also some concern about fuels
status along the northern Foothills and most of the I-25
corridor/Palmer Divide...and if fuels status changes over the
next few days, some fire weather highlights may need to be
expanded into those regions going forward.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for COZ211>214-216>218.

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
COZ212>214-216.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...RPK

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion