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372 FXUS65 KBOU 172038 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 238 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend for today and Tuesday, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. - More active weather day shaping up for Wednesday with scattered severe thunderstorm threat. - Warmer again through the coming weekend with above normal temperatures. Drier Thursday and Friday, but some monsoonal moisture likely returns by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 125 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Drier zonal flow aloft is now over most of the state today... and unsurprisingly that has led to warmer temperatures across the region, along with far less convection over our forecast area. We`ve seen a return to 90s today (92F at DEN so far), with dew points back down into the 30s across the metro. We haven`t completely mixed out the boundary layer moisture across the northern I-25 corridor and over the easterly plains, where there are still mid/upper 50s dew points and modest MLCAPE. Guidance still tries to spit out a couple of showers or thunderstorms there and the environment would support a couple of stronger storms assuming we get a real attempt at CI at some point this afternoon. A weak cold front is still on track to arrive sometime late Tuesday morning, which should introduce some better surface moisture to the I-25 corridor. The increased instability (along with increasing deep layer shear) will promote at least widely scattered thunderstorms, and it wouldn`t be surprising to see a couple strong to severe storms yet again during the afternoon... especially over the eastern plains. Stronger ridging is expected to develop during the latter half of the week, though we won`t see temperatures climb nearly as high as we did with our previous ridge. Forecast highs will return back into the mid 90s for the Denver metro with generally dry conditions. As we head into the weekend or early next week, the ridge is expected to briefly weaken and shift into a slightly more favorable location for monsoon moisture to make a brief return. Both Sunday and Monday have higher PoPs, though once again the NBM is likely a bit too bullish with PoP coverage across most of our forecast area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1128 AM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 VFR conditions are expected today. While there is some instability out there today, ACARS soundings are rather capped and most guidance struggles to develop much more than some scattered mid- level clouds this afternoon. Winds should remain weak and out of the east through most of the afternoon before transitioning back to drainage around 03-05z, which will prevail through the overnight hours. Winds will weaken and start to turn clockwise during the morning hours Tuesday. A wind shift/cold front is expected to arrive near or just after 18z Tuesday with slightly stronger northeast flow following it. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hiris AVIATION...Hiris