722
FXUS65 KBOU 260844
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
244 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers expected through Monday morning. Early morning
  fog could impact morning commute across Denver metro and plains.

- Generally light snow accumulations in the mountains, with minor
  travel impacts over some of the high passes through early Monday
  morning.

- Warming trend and mostly dry much of upcoming week.

- Unsettled weather potentially returning next weekend, but odds
  favor western and southern Colorado once again.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A couple of quick updates this morning. First, it`s pretty clear
this wave is going to give many in the Denver metro more rain than
originally promised. Despite an absence of any real upslope flow
on the KFTG VAD, we`ve seen precipitation blossom across the
Denver metro and Palmer Divide since midnight. There`s been a few
public gauges that have already received 0.25" or so since
midnight across the far southwestern metro, perhaps enhanced a bit
by the northerly surface flow. Most of the precipitation is tied
to the strong vort max pivoting almost directly over the area this
morning, which guidance has struggled to handle. We bumped up
PoPs/QPF quite a bit in the near term to account for this. It
wouldn`t be surprising to see a couple half inch rainfall totals
by the time most folks wake up later this morning.

Given the changes in the precipitation and low level moisture
fields, it`s also likely that stratus will be slower to erode than
previously thought. We lowered high temperatures this afternoon by
around 5 degrees to account for this, though some recent guidance
(e.g., 06z HRRR) barely manages to get anyone into the 50s this
afternoon. With the cooler/wetter trend for today, that also
leads to a potentially foggy scenario for tonight into Tuesday
morning. Will let the day shift take a full look at this but it
wouldn`t be surprising if we ended up with some dense fog across
the northern metro and I-76 corridor.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 1152 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Current radar imagery shows ongoing light showers across the
forecast area as the upper level shortwave tracks across
Colorado/Wyoming tonight. Mountain snow and rain showers over the
plains will continue through tonight before exiting the region by
Monday morning (most precip in Denver should be finished by sunrise,
with the northeastern plains still seeing showers in the early
morning). In terms of snowfall amounts across the high terrain,
forecast looks to remain on track, with the northern mountains
receiving generally 1-4" of snow by Monday morning and I-70 Corridor
and south receiving T-2". Expect travel impacts across high
mountain passes for the morning commute.

With low-level moisture still in place, many people will wake up to
fog/low clouds in the morning across the Denver metro and plains,
with possible impacts to morning commute due to low visibility.
However, expect conditions to gradually improve by 9-10 AM with
clearing skies in the afternoon. After that, an overall drying trend
is expected as the upper level shortwave exits the region. We will
still be relatively cool on Monday, given the slow morning warm-up,
with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Relatively dry and quiet conditions are expected for the forecast
area Tuesday and through the end of the week, as more zonal flow
aloft returns. An upper level low in the Pacific Northwest is
progged to travel east across Idaho and Montana early this week.
While it will stay north of Colorado, it will bring increased
westerly flow aloft, resulting in breezy conditions across the high
terrain Tuesday. Short-range models have been hinting at winds
gusting up to 40-50 mph periodically in the morning. In terms of
temperatures for the week, ensemble solutions are in good agreement
of above-normal temperatures, with highs in the mid-to-high 60s
across the plains.

High uncertainty remains in the forecast Friday and into the
weekend. A weak upper level shortwave will track across the
southwestern United States and into the Central United States.
However, recent global model runs continue to hint that this
disturbance will likely be too far south and east to impact our
forecast area. For now, NBM PoPs of 10-20% seem reasonable at this
time for the eastern plains on Friday, but wouldn`t be surprised if
it continues to lower in the coming days. After that, models vary
drastically in handling the next upper level low that pushes through
by the weekend/ early next week. It will likely be able to tap into
tropical moisture as it tracks east into the Central United States,
but there is still high uncertainty which areas will receive the

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1205 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

IFR or LIFR conditions are likely to continue through at least
12z, before ceilings/visibility slowly improve during the mid/late
morning hours. Initial push of moisture back into the terminals
seems to have produced a narrow pocket of dense fog, with APA/DEN
both briefly reporting 1/4 to 1/2SM FG in the last couple of
hours. Upstream, most visby reports have been closer to 1-2SM and
we think that will be the case at the terminals overnight. Low
stratus has also developed with BKN002-004 cigs all reported in
the last hour, with guidance indicating that this will also
prevail for a while. Winds should remain out of the
north/northwest overnight with speeds near/less than 10kt.

A couple uncertain things in this TAF forecast. First, it appears
likely that the terminals will see an organized batch of SHRA or
steady RA in a couple of hours with a well defined precipitation
shield developing to the south. That should wash away some of the
denser fog for a few hours, but it`s possible FG could redevelop
once this rain departs the area near 12z. Second, guidance is
fairly slow to completely dissipate the MVFR cigs. Best case
scenario is something close to 16-18z, though it`s more likely
we won`t see a return to VFR until closer to 20z.

Finally, RAP/HRRR solutions indicate the potential for more
widespread dense fog beyond 06z Tuesday with a weak Denver cyclone
developing across the metro. This setup would favor BJC/DEN for
more fog, but guidance has struggled over the last two days and
it`s too early to commit to anything more than VCFG in the TAF.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hiris
DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...Hiris

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion