566
FXUS65 KBOU 150550
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1150 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool, cloudy, and drizzly through tonight. Patchy dense fog
  across the foothills and plains overnight.

- Mountain snow continuing overnight, especially across the
  northern mountains. Several inches of additional snow possible,
  with travel impacts on some high mountain passes.

- First freeze of the season expected over most of the plains
  lateThursday night into early Friday morning.

- Drier and warmer again for the weekend and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The upper level low continues to drift northeastward, with water
vapor satellite suggesting the center is somewhere near Berthoud
Pass as of 05z. This circulation is also evident on KFTG/KCYS,
with bands of rain and snow showers pivoting to the west/southwest
over Larimer and Jackson counties, while most of the snow showers
along the I-70 corridor had moved eastward over the last couple
of hours. Meanwhile, there`s been some patchy dense fog that`s
developed across the lower foothills and portions of the I-25
corridor. Models do not have a very good handle on where and how
long this will last, but it seems plausible that this would
continue for the next few hours before quickly diminishing
sometime in the early AM.

Almost all of the additional snowfall tonight will fall along and
north of the track of the 700/500mb lows overnight, meaning
little to no additional snowfall is expected along and south of
I-70. Even our far northern mountains may only see lower end
advisory totals through tomorrow morning, with most guidance
keeping the more significant QPF in Wyoming. We`ve tweaked the
timing of the Winter Weather Advisories to try to account for
this.

Rain and snow showers will likely be ongoing across the northern
CWA Thursday morning, with a band of precipitation pivoting from
northwest to southeast during the morning hours as the upper low
treks off to the northeast. Any additional precipitation across
the I-25 corridor is expected to be light (generally just a few
hundredths). Winds will pick up during the morning hours and
continue through the afternoon as 800-700mb flow increases to
30-40kt in a subsident/cold air advection regime. A few gusts of
40-45 mph will be possible along and east of I-25 during the late
morning and most of the afternoon.

North-northwest flow aloft will continue on Friday, but winds are
expected to diminish as the mid-level flow weakens and QG
subsidence also decreases. We`ll be left with a relatively cool
but sunny day with highs remaining in the mid 50s to perhaps low
60s across the plains.

A broad upper ridge will then be the focus for the weekend, with a
pronounced warmup likely for both Saturday and Sunday. Highs
across the plains are expected to rebound into the 70s, with dry
conditions. While winds will generally remain weak, there could be
some locally critical fire weather conditions over the far eastern
plains both Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

By next week, guidance generally begins to push the ridge off to
the east, leaving the region in weak southwesterly flow aloft. A
weak shortwave or two may attempt to push into the area by
early/mid week, leading to a gradual increase in rain and snow
showers across the higher elevations. However, the chances of any
meaningful precipitation looks rather low... with 90th percentile
QPF less than a tenth of an inch across the mountains through
Wednesday. Temperatures during this period will likely remain
above normal with highs in the 70s most days. There are hints of
a more organized storm system by this time next week, but there
(unsurprisingly) rather large differences in timing and location
of that potential system at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/...
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Low clouds and fog are are present in and around the TAF sites as of
late this evening, bringing LIFR to all terminals. Visibilities
will likely sit in the 1/4 mile to 3 mile range with CIGs around
200 to 500ft for much of the overnight period. Light showers and
drizzle will be possible overnight, with the highest chances for
rain at KBJC. CIGs are forecast to lift out of LIFR and into IFR
around 11Z. Another round of showers is expected to move through
the TAF sites between 14Z and 18Z. CIGs are forecast to lift and
scatter out behind the showers, bringing the TAF sites to VFR
around 18Z and to visual approaches at KDEN around 20Z. Winds will
increase out of the north around 14Z or 15Z, with gusts around
24kts to 30kts. Winds will weaken around 23Z to 00Z, becoming
light and variable for the evening.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ031-033.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM MDT Thursday for COZ034.

Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
COZ038>051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...AP

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion