153
FXUS65 KBOU 062324
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
524 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm through at least Saturday.

- Only isolated to scattered showers (15-30% coverage) for the
  mountains and higher terrain. Any precipitation would be light.

- Pattern change late this weekend and early next week, but
  considerable uncertainty as to when and how much temperatures
  will cool and what chance of precipitation we`ll see.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Another warm day in the books for October as current surface
observations show widespread temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s.
With the increased cloud cover today, we should stay slightly
cooler compared to yesterday. However, near-record temperatures
are still expected this afternoon for portions of the plains
(record temperature at DIA is 87, with forecast high temperature
of 86 today). Isolated light showers and possibly a few rumbles of
thunder still look on track this afternoon and evening for the
mountains and high valleys, with current radar imagery already
showing pop-up convection near South Park. Precipitation amounts
will be light with anything that does develop. While unlikely (~10%
chance or less) CAMs do indicate a few virga showers spilling
onto the I-25 Corridor later this evening, with gusty outflow
winds of 25-35 mph possible.

Warm and mostly dry conditions look to continue through the end of
the week and into the weekend, as an upper level ridge resides
over the southwestern U.S. Highs should be about 10-15 dg F above
normal. For Wednesday and Thursday, 700-mb temperatures will
"cool" slightly, which will help keep temperatures in the low 80s
across the plains. Like today, another round of isolated shower
activity is possible, but should mostly be confined to the higher
terrain. With flow aloft turning more southwesterly, precipitation
chances decrease Friday and Saturday.

A pattern change is becoming more likely by Sunday/Monday, as a
system from the Pacific northwest dips south along California
early next week before eventually ejecting east by mid-to-late
next week. However, there is still a lot of model variability in
terms of evolution of the system and moisture availability.
Cooler temperatures should arrive by Sunday or Monday for our
forecast area behind a cold front. However, it is uncertain
exactly when and how cool we will get, as ensemble spread for max
T ranges from high 50s to low 80s both days. Regardless, we can
expect cooler conditions. In terms of precipitation, guidance does
try to pull in moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Rachel. If
the moisture can travel up to our region, shower activity will
return to the mountains. Unfortunately for the plains, it doesn`t
look like any meaningful precipitation could occur until mid-to-
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 520 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds have been
light and VRB for most of this afternoon. There is a very low,
but non-zero chance of gusty winds due to virga showers for the
next few hours. Winds will turn to a modified drainage (more
westerly than usual) tonight and stay light- under 8 kts- at KDEN
and KAPA. KBJC will stay light and northwesterly overnight. By
tomorrow late morning and into the afternoon, winds will turn to
the north/northeast and slowly turn clockwise through the
afternoon before becoming drainage in the evening. There is a
~10-20% chance of a virga shower causing gusty and erratic outflow
winds at all three sites tomorrow afternoon. Only a few to sct
mid- and high-level clouds are expected through the period.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...MV

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion