937
FXUS65 KBOU 051902
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
102 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning today for the northern mountains and high
  valleys.

- Elevated and locally critical fire weather conditions likely to
  persist for the high mountain valleys through the weekend.

- Temperatures will gradually warm up this week, with highs back
  into the upper 90s to around 103 for the plains this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 1226 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Mostly dry conditions are expected for the rest of the afternoon.
Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, but will remain below
normal. There is a low chance for a few showers and thunderstorms to
develop to the southeast of our forecast area tonight as weak
disturbance moves through aloft. An isolated shower or two could
make there way far enough northwest to move into Lincoln County,
but impacts to our forecast area are not expected.

Temperatures will continue to warm tomorrow into the weekend. The
upper level high will build north and east over the four corners
region, sitting over the area through Sunday. As a result,
temperatures will go back above normal, with highs reaching into
the mid 90s to around 103 across the plains for the weekend. DENs
record high on Saturday will be out of reach, with a current
record of 105 set in 1878, but we could go for the record high on
Sunday. The current forecast has a high of 99 on Sunday and the
current record for August 9th is 98 degrees set in 2021. Along
with heat, the upper level ridge will bring northwest mid and
upper level winds, which will continuously bring smoke from fires
in the Pacific NW into the area aloft through the end of the
week.

The upper level high does start to shift a bit more to the west
Sunday into early next week. Models are hinting at a return of
moisture sometime Sunday into the middle of next week. As the high
shifts and weakens slightly, moisture could flow from the Pacific
into the forecast area aloft, bringing PWs back to near or above
normal by early next week. With the weakening of the ridge, a few
upper level disturbances will have the potential to move across
the area starting on Sunday. The weak lift associated with the
disturbances could be enough to trigger a few showers and storms
in the higher terrain on Sunday, with rain chances moving east
into the plains sometime late Monday into the middle of next week.
We`ll also see a gradual cooling trend next week as moisture
increases, sky cover increases, and the ridge weakens.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Current observations show winds gradually turning north/northeast
as the cyclone continues east of the terminals. Typical diurnal
wind pattern expected throughout the day with winds transitioning
to southeast and then drainage by tonight. With the low stratus
clearing in the past hour, no ceiling issues expected for the rest
of the day. However, smoke today may cause slant-wise visibility
issues this afternoon/evening.

Tomorrow morning, low stratus will form again, but will likely
stay east of all terminals. However, with dewpoint depressions
decreasing we could see haze in the morning. Guidance has
continued to indicate smoke concentration increasing by
mid-morning, which will likely cause more visibility issues
throughout the day.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ211>214-217-
218.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...MAI

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion