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146 FXUS65 KBOU 230525 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1125 PM MDT Wed Oct 22 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow showers and scattered light rain showers in the lower elevations late Thursday into Friday. Highest coverage in the mountains and across the Palmer Divide. - Potential for an impactful system Sunday and Monday of next week. Most likely impacts will be strong winds and mountain snowfall. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Clouds will start to spread in from the southwest overnight, then continue to increase and thicken on Thursday. Low level moisture will be increasing, though it will still be pretty dry at low levels over the plains. We may wind up with decent coverage of convection over the mountains by mid to late afternoon, but it will be shallow and weak, producing light showers. Anything that drifts onto the plains late will be falling into dry air, so we don`t expect rain east of the mountains until evening, then some scattered light showers are possible, mainly south of I-70. The snow level will remain high, around timberline during the day and then dropping to between 9 and 10 thousand feet Thursday night. The shortwave trough over the state should quickly drift off to the south and east Thursday night through Friday, with mountain snow lingering into Friday morning. Though overall snowfall totals still look light, there could be some minor travel impacts across the higher mountain passes Thursday night. Friday and Saturday in general should be quiet in between storm systems, with weak ridging over the region. Temperatures on Friday will still be near normal (low 60s), with a modest warming trend for Saturday. A deeper trough is expected to push into the western CONUS by the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Guidance remains in fairly good agreement in developing stronger westerly flow aloft, and as moisture increases there should be widespread orographic snow showers developing across the mountains. The overall pattern would generally favor the northern mountains given that the trough axis looks to stay a little to our north and west... meaning most of the plains will see more wind than precipitation. Cooler west-northwesterly flow aloft is likely to prevail through the early half of the week, leading to near/below normal temperatures in the period with continued mountain snow showers. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/... Issued at 1125 PM MDT Wed Oct 22 2025 VFR will persist for the TAF period, but there will be a developing mid level cloud deck at 7000-10,000 ft AGL for the Denver area TAF sites. One wave of this mid level moisture should move through 13Z-18Z, with another arriving 00Z-06Z. The first should have nothing more than virga at best, while the second will produce scattered light showers or sprinkles, just enough to mention a Prob30 in the TAF between 01Z and 06Z. There is only a slight (