763
FXUS65 KBOU 020549
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1149 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and unseasonably warm weather returns for the majority of
  the week ahead. Record/near record warmth next Monday.

- A few showers expected Tuesday as a weak disturbance moves
  across.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

It was a pleasant day across northeastern Colorado today. Sunshine
returned and the urban corridor only saw highs in the upper 60s
to near 70. Tonight`s temperatures will feel like fall as lows in
the 40s are expected in the plains with mid 20s to upper 30s in
the mountains and valleys. There is also the chance for some
patchy fog/low clouds Friday morning mainly in the eastern plains,
Cheyenne Ridge, and Palmer Divide. A weak cyclone developing
overnight may also support a slight risk of fog north of Denver
along the I-25 corridor.

This weekend a ridge is still expected to build over eastern Utah
and western Colorado bringing above average temperatures. Friday and
Sunday will see similar temperatures with upper 70s/lower 80s across
the I-25 corridor, Denver metro, and eastern plains. Lincoln County
and the Palmer Divide will be slightly cooler in the upper 60s.
Saturday will be a few degrees warmer area wide in the low/mid 80s
with some locations reaching the upper 80s. Additionally, a weak
cold front appears to makes its way through the northeastern plains
Saturday afternoon causing breezy conditions with gusts in the 20-30
kts range. This will not tame temperatures at all though as mixing
will still induce temperatures in the low/mid-80s. It is also worth
it to note that elevated fire weather conditions are expected for a
few hours Saturday afternoon in the Cheyenne Ridge region with the
passage of the front.

Monday temperatures heat up to near record for Denver. Current
forecasted temperature is 86 and that would put us just one degree
shy from the daily record set in 2024 at 87 degrees. Elsewhere, we
should reach the mid/upper 80s while it stays slightly cooler in the
upper 70s near Lincoln County and the Palmer Divide. Deterministic
models shows a weak disturbance in the ridge that could move across
our area Tuesday, and forecast soundings depict some moisture moving
in aloft. This should be the greatest chance in the higher terrain
as the disturbance moves overhead and moisture fills in. We
currently have a 20-30% for an isolated shower or weak storm across
the high country. With a focus on the Central Mountains, such as
Clear Creek and Summit Counties. Through the end of next week the
dry stagnant pattern looks to return as the ridge develops overhead
once again. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue in
the upper 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday/...
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Current observations show enhanced south-southeasterly winds are
in place at KDEN/KAPA, with KBJC in the process of becoming light
and variable. Expecting a few hours of a touch stronger gusts to
kick in at KDEN/KAPA in between the 7Z to 9Z time frame. There is
still low potential for any direct impacts across the airfields from
fog at KDEN/KBJC, but we may see it get within the vicinity
between roughly 12Z to 15Z when a cyclone becomes slightly more
developed, advecting it southward towards the metro, with the
greater potential being for KBJC. Winds are still expected to
maintain a southerly component at KDEN/KAPA through the TAF
period, with KBJC likely seeing an easterly to south-southeasterly
turn through the morning and afternoon, before becoming westerly
by the late evening hours (~3Z).

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schnell
AVIATION...9

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion