445
FXUS65 KBOU 111140
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
440 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of mountain snow today through Thursday. Travel impacts
  expected by mid to late afternoon through Thursday morning.

- Chance of light rain showers over the plains Thursday through
  Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 1119 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

There is some light snow falling along the divide in Larimer,
Grand and Boulder Counties at this time. Not much cloudiness over
the plains at this time. Today`s high temperature in Denver; 46
degrees was the coolest daily high so far this month out of ten
days, and that reading was still 2 degrees above normal for the
day.

Models have strong west-southwesterly flow aloft over the CWA
tonight through Friday morning, with jet level speeds in the 100-130
knot range that entire period.  There will be fairly deep moisture
embedded in the flow Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.
Cross sections indicate mountain top wind directions to go west-
northwesterly for a few hours Wednesday evening, which may enhance
orographic snow production there. I ran the Rhea-Thaler
Orographic Snow Model, and snowfall amounts were under 10 inches
in all of our the mountain locations. That was even at a 10:1
ratio, and we may not even have that good of a ratio with as warm
as models indicate it to be at 700 mb. There is also little or no
synoptic energy progged to help with snow production. The
widespread snow in the mountains should decrease significantly
Thursday overnight, then we`ll go with scattered light snow
showers into late day Friday.

The upper ridge over the CWA through Thursday night will push east
as a weak upper trough moves eastward into the CWA by later Friday
and Friday night. There is very little synoptic scale energy with
this trough.  Over the plains, the ECMWF shows a cold front and
upslope along with limited QPF on Thursday into Thursday evening.
The rest of the models do not show this. Will decrease the pops
over the plains a bit this update.

For temperatures, the plains remain on the warm side at 10 to 15
degrees above normal for the highs on Wednesday through Friday.
Readings will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

For the later days, models are in good agreement showing upper
ridging for Colorado both Saturday and Sunday.  Southwesterly flow
aloft is progged to move in Sunday night and continue over the state
through Tuesday. Jet level speeds get above 100 knots from Monday
night through Tuesday night.  Moisture is sparse on Saturday, then
some mid and upper level moisture Sunday and Monday. There is a tad
of lower level moisture in the mountains on Tuesday, perhaps
warranting "scattered" pops as best, otherwise dry in the mountains.
For the plains, dry all four days with above normal temperatures.
There could be some critical fire weather conditions by Tuesday
over the plains with increased westerly winds by afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/...
Issued at 433 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Winds were mainly light and variable early this morning with a
light SSW wind at DIA.  Expect winds will stay light and variable
thru late morning.  Latest data doesn`t show much of a Denver
Cyclone by aftn but will keep previous fcst as is with winds
becoming N or NNE at APA and DIA by 20Z with light east at BJC.
By 23Z winds may shift to a more NNW direction but confidence is
low at this time. By 01z-02z winds will likely become light and
variable and then become light drainage by 05z.

As far as clouds, not sure about bkn ceilings down to 9000 ft by
aftn so left in a sct deck.  Otherwise VFR continues should
continue today and tonight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ031.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ033-034.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...RPK

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion