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654 FXUS65 KBOU 251153 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 453 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy, wet, mountain snow will continue through Wednesday night. The heaviest snow amounts and worst travel conditions will be in the Park and Medicine Bow Ranges. - Critical fire weather conditions Wednesday through Friday. - Cooler temperatures and another wave of mountain snow possible next weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 101 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026 Water vapor imagery shows a plume of Pacific moisture rounding the upper-level ridge and streaming into Colorado, where our forecast area remains east of a broad ridge axis, and under northwesterly flow aloft. Radar and webcams show that snow has started to fall along the Divide this evening. This snow is expected to continue through late Wednesday night, becoming heavy at times, warranting the current winter weather highlights in place across the mountains. No changes have been made to the current highlights, though the latest snowfall totals have increased slightly across the Park Range and Indian Peaks, but with the majority of the zone that includes the Indian Peaks still below winter storm criteria, we will keep the advisory as it stands. Just note that we do expect heavier storm totals in the Indian Peaks of Boulder County (around 15 to 20 inches of additional snowfall) than across the rest of the zone, where 8 to 11 inches, with localized heavier amounts will be possible at the highest elevations. We are also expecting some pretty impressive snowfall rates overnight tonight in the Park Range and Indian Peaks (~2"/hr) before they gradually decrease through tomorrow. There hasn`t been any significant changes to note in Wednesday`s wind forecast. A tightening pressure gradient along with a 60-70 kt, 700 mb jet pushing southward into northern Colorado will support another day of strong winds across much of the forecast area, with gusts expected to approach, but not quite reach high wind criteria (58 mph) across the northern plains, before a cold front pushes south across northern Colorado in the late afternoon/early evening. These strong winds are still expected to coincide with low relative humidities throughout the day (near to just above critical thresholds), bringing widespread critical fire weather conditions across our lower elevations (more in fire discussion below), where a Red Flag is in place from 10AM to 6PM. With the passing front and a jet hanging out overhead, there is a low chance that some of the plains see a little light precipitation (a few hundredths), though all of the hi-res models really only show the main area to see a brief passing shower to be along the Wyoming/Nebraska borders as the front passes through. Therefore, PoPs were trimmed back significantly to account for this. For Thursday, mountain snow should gradually end through the morning. Across the plains, despite having slightly cooler temps behind the front, we will have a drier airmass in place that will increase fire weather concerns. With another windy day expected across the plains (though lighter winds than Wednesday), RH values are forecast to drop into the mid-teens across the plains. We have issued a Fire Weather Watch for much of the lower elevations (more in fire discussion below). Friday will be much of the same, more wind and even drier air (RHs drop into the single digits across portions of the plains). The main focus will be critical fire weather conditions once again, with temperatures climbing back up into the mid to upper 60s across the lower elevations as 700 mb temps warm by about 5-6C. By Saturday, a surface high over southern Canada looks to start pushing cold air south towards Colorado. The models typically struggle to show how far west into Colorado the cold air makes it in this type of regime, but there is a signal in the ensembles that by Saturday we see some cooler temperatures start creeping into northeastern Colorado, and by Monday, afternoon highs across the plains will finally not reach 60 degrees! Our next shot at mountain snow will be next weekend, as a shortwave approaches. There are still many uncertainties within guidance that will need to be worked out, but between cooler temps and increasing moisture, there is a chance we see some light snow down here on the plains by early next week! && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/... Issued at 441 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026 VFR conditions, but gusty winds likely through the day today. Winds this morning are somewhat variable, but should quickly turn to the west-northwest by 15-17z. Guidance remains consistent developing stronger gusts after 18-19z which continue through most of the afternoon and early evening. BUFKIT profiles still suggest some mixing potential closer to 45-50kt... and it wouldn`t be surprising to see a few >45kt gusts at BJC this afternoon. For DEN and APA, a few gusts around 40kt are possible, mainly between 19-00z. Winds should slowly diminish this evening with a brief attempt at drainage flow late tonight. West-northwest to northwest winds again look to develop by late morning Thursday though speeds will be lighter than today. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 101 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026 Strong winds and low relative humidities are expected today, though RH values will be slightly higher than critical thresholds for much of the northern portions of the plains, with fuels remaining very dry and winds expected to gust up to 55 mph, a Red Flag Warning is in place for all of the plains from 10AM to 6PM today. A cold front is expected to pass across the forecast area tonight bringing drier air to the region for Thursday and Friday. With persistent above-normal temps and winds remaining gusty across the plains (though much lighter than Wednesday!), with gusts between 25 to 40 mph expected, we have issued a Fire Weather Watch for much of the plains for Thursday, as widespread RH values in the mid-teens are expected. Friday will see similar windy conditions with even lower RH values (single digits south of Denver, low teens for the rest of the plains). Saturday will see improvements to RHs, especially across the northern plains, but there may still be some elevated to critical fire weather conditions, though winds are expected to be much lighter in areas where the RH will be lowest. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ031-033. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for COZ034. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for COZ238>251. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for COZ238>240-242>246-248>251. && $$ DISCUSSION...9 AVIATION...Hiris FIRE WEATHER...9