312
FXUS65 KBOU 112340
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
440 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  through Friday.

- Chances for rain and snow showers across the high country this
  weekend, with a few showers possible over the eastern plains.

- Another storm system possible early/mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 1119 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

It`s rather quiet across the forecast area today. Current
satellite shows a few high clouds across the northern mountains
and along the Cheyenne Ridge, with mostly sunny skies elsewhere.
Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than this time
yesterday, but should still reach the mid 60s across most of the
Denver metro and plains.

The ridge off to our west (currently centered near the UT/NV
border) should slide eastward for Thursday and Friday. The dry
airmass and very weak flow aloft should allow for our quiet period
to continue through the rest of the week, with highs again several
degrees above normal.

Cooler weather is expected this weekend, as the first of a couple
shortwaves moves through the region. This initial shortwave
breaks off from a broad longwave trough on Saturday, eventually
forming a weak closed low near the OK panhandle or northern Texas
by Sunday morning. This system is generally moisture starved and
lacks any significant QG ascent as it passes through the region.
Weak mid/upper flow aloft will also limit the
strength/organization of any orographic snow across the mountains,
though we still generally expect some light accumulations
(especially along/south of I-70). Though a few model cycles hinted
at a stronger/better organized upper low Saturday night... which
led to some decent QPF across portions of our plains... most
guidance has backed off on that and it looks like it`ll be
difficult to get any precipitation this far north. The NBM PoP
gradient Saturday night is probably a bit too broad and displaced
too far northeast, but time will tell as this system starts
getting inside the regional/mesoscale model windows.

Generally quiet weather is expected again for the first couple
days of next week, as weak ridging builds back across the region.
However, this looks to be short-lived as we enter what appears to
be a cooler, more active weather pattern from mid-week towards
next weekend. The first prominent shortwave is currently expected
to track towards our forecast area by Wednesday. Model consistency
in this period is poor, but it will be something to keep an eye on
over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/...
Issued at 437 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds are
becoming more easterly at each of the TAF sites, and should stay
predominantly easterly for the next couple hours before turning to
the south. By around 05Z, winds should settle into
south/southwest drainage flow and stay there overnight. Tomorrow
will follow a similar pattern as today, with a couple hours of
light and variable winds in the morning followed by
north/northeast flow in the afternoon for KDEN and KAPA, and
east/southeast for KBJC. Wind speeds will be light and skies will
be clear throughout the TAF period.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...AGS

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion