104
FXUS65 KBOU 290605
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1205 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for heavy rainfall will increase late Tuesday,
  continuing through early Thursday. The highest chance for the larger
  rain amounts will be in our southeastern counties. Uncertainty
  remains in exact amounts.

- Flood Watch in effect for the southern Front Range Foothills,
  Palmer Divide, and Elbert and Lincoln Counties from late
  Tuesday through Thursday morning.

- Rain chances decrease late Thursday, leading to warmer and drier
  conditions for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 1053 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

As of late this evening, the upper level trough is moving through
southern California and Hurricane Polo is nearing the west coast of
Baja California. The trough will slowly makes its way across the
southeast U.S., eventually absorbing the remnants of Polo on
Tuesday. Moisture ahead of and with this system is anomalously high,
leading to rain chances for the next few days. Tonight, a weak cold
front will move through the area bringing northerly winds and more
dense low to mid cloud cover. The northerly winds behind the front
could provide enough weak upslope flow along the Palmer and southern
Foothills for some light showers throughout the day Tuesday.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front, with temps
dropping into the 60s for much of the plains.

The main concern for this forecast will be the late Tuesday through
mid Thursday time period. The upper level low is forecast to move
just south of the four corners region early Wednesday. At the
surface a low is forecast to develop just ahead of the trough
somewhere in New Mexico. The path of this low is one of the main
differences between models, with some taking it northeast into the
Texas Panhandle and others take it more north into southeastern
Colorado. The location of this low will be very important for our
rain chances. If the low tracks closer to the area, our chances
for more widespread precip will increase as well as the potential
for higher rain totals. If the low tracks more towards the Texas
Panhandle and Oklahoma, the larger precip amounts will likely
miss our area. I will say, higher resolution models are leaning
more towards the surface low moving into southeastern Colorado,
which increases our confidence in the higher precip amounts for
our southern most counties. However, the northward extent of the
heavier rainfall is still very uncertain. Right now, it looks
like that northward extent of heavier precip could sit somewhere
near Denver, which unfortunately means that the metro is one the
area with the highest uncertainty for rain totals.

We are starting to get increasingly concerned about the Palmer
Divide area in terms of the higher rain totals. If the low does end
up moving over SE Colorado, strong northerly winds could provide
decent upslope along the Palmer and southern Foothills, which could
nudge it towards those higher precip amounts. Because of this we
did extend the Flood Watch to include the southern foothills zone.
I did consider adding Arapahoe county and Washington county to
the Watch as well, but we will wait until confidence increases in
the northward extent of the higher rain totals. Areas within the
watch are expected to see rainfall totals around 1.5 to 3 inches,
with the potential for some areas to see 4+ inches. As of the
latest model runs, Denver is sitting at a 50% to 60% chance of
seeing at least 1 inch of rain late Tuesday through Thursday,
which is slightly higher than what we were seeing yesterday.

Snow chances in the higher terrain will peak early Thursday
morning as temperatures finally start to cool more aloft. Amounts
are still forecast to be on the lower end (a couple inches at
most), with snow levels generally around 11,000ft. Rain chances
will start to taper off on Thursday as this system moves off to
the east. Behind the trough, we`ll see weak ridging start to build
over the area this weekend, leading to drier and warmer
conditions. Models are showing a cold front moving through the
area on Saturday, keeping temperatures slightly cooler and closer
to normal for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Some uncertainty with the winds over the next 6-9 hours. A front
is still on track to move in from the north, but there is a wide
spread in when exactly it reaches the terminals. We have it
pushing through the sites around 13/14z. There is a ~30% chance
that winds turn more W to SW ahead of the front. There is also a
~30% chance that the front pushes through a few hours earlier than
this.

The main issue during this TAF period will be ceilings. RH cross
sections and model soundings continue to show impressive moisture
across the area. Once the front pushes through, we expect low
status for much of the day. KAPA and KBJC look to have the lowest
ceilings- approaching 4000 ft AGL. KDEN should see ceilings drop
to ~5000 ft AGL this morning and through the early afternoon. We
expect ceilings to lower even a bit further for the late evening
into Wednesday morning.

Short-term models continue to back off on rain chances for much
of the day today. These solutions seem reasonable given SW flow
aloft. Some light rain is possible in the evening hours, but
meaningful rain chances do not enter the picture until the very
end of this TAF period (~8-12z Wednesday) as the upper-level low
moves closer. Any rain shower could lower ceilings and/or
visibility. As previous discussions have noted, KAPA will be the
most favored terminal for rainfall Tuesday evening and beyond.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning for
COZ036-041-046-047.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...MV

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion