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261 FXUS65 KBOU 080008 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 608 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Increased moisture expected to bring an uptick in shower and storm coverage this afternoon and evening, with an isolated severe wind threat across the plains. - Higher probabilities of thunderstorms with a few strong to severe storms from the Front Range eastward on Wednesday and Thursday. - Hot temperatures arrive Saturday lasting through at least Tuesday with a minimal chance of any thunderstorms for heat relief. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 213 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Visible satellite imagery shows convective clouds have formed across the higher terrain today. In addition, it shows a decent amount of smoke in our CWA to the south of I-70. The smoke, combined with the heat, is helping to create unpleasant conditions outside this afternoon. The coverage of the showers and storms will be between 30-50% across our forecast area today. Dew points have remained elevated despite what the high resolution models had expected. KFNL, KLMO, and KBDU all had dew points in the low 50s at 1:15pm resulting in better instability than forecast. This may lead to more intense updrafts that lead to a few severe wind gusts from the foothills across the eastern plains. While some areas will see brief heavy rain, most areas will see little to no rainfall. The center of the ridge of high pressure aloft will slide southwestward Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow for slightly better 500 and 250 mb flow aloft each day resulting in deep layer shear between 25-35 knots on Wednesday and 30-40 knots on Thursday. With moderate east-northeasterly surface flow bringing in moisture and instability, strong to severe storms are expected each day. SPC has the eastern plains outlined in a slight risk for severe storms with damaging wind gusts the primary threat each day. The storms, clouds, and increased low level moisture will be able to cool temperatures as well. Highs on Wednesday across the plains will be in the low 90s with the upper 80s expected on Thursday. Instability will weaken on Friday as somewhat cooler conditions are expected. Shower and storm coverage will decrease to isolated coverage. An anomalously strong ridge will develop on Saturday and will position itself roughly over Wyoming to South Dakota Sunday through Tuesday. There will be very warm air aloft with 500 mb temperatures roughly -3 to -5 C over our forecast area during this period. This will suppress the chance for storms and cloud cover. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures will be well above normal. The interesting thing about the position of this ridge is that southeast winds look likely to develop across almost our entire forecast area. If this verifies, it will actually lead to moist, upslope flow across the plains and this will help to keep temperatures below 100 degrees in most areas. If the winds don`t end up being easterly and keep more of a southwesterly component, temperatures may soar above 100 degrees across the I-25 corridor which may lead to Heat Advisories. To the west of the Continental Divide, the likely downslope, southeasterly winds will result in record high temperatures. Highs may reach the mid 90s in the Middle Park and the low 90s in North Park. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/... Issued at 606 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Current radar imagery shows outflows lingering near the Denver metro area as a few lightning strikes over the foothills. We expect shower and thunderstorm activity to diminish by 02Z-04Z and winds to turn to light SSW drainage at KDEN and KAPA, while KBJC stays more westerly to variable at times. We have opted to keep smoke out of the TAF for tomorrow given that winds aloft are expected to turn to the NW overnight which would help relieve smoke concentrations. Winds tomorrow will start out light and variable before shifting to the NE in the early afternoon. If a cyclone forms, KAPA would likely experience SE winds. Thunderstorms are expected to start developing over foothills in the early afternoon and will be tracking east and over the airports between 20Z and 02Z. The primary concern will be dry microbursts and gusty outflows, up to 35-40KT. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Danielson AVIATION...AA