National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
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879 FXUS65 KBOU 101754 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1054 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of Light snow developing in the mountains today continuing tonight. - Periods of mountain snowfall expected Wednesday through Saturday morning. Light rain and snow showers possible across the plains Thursday night through Friday night. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 1119 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026 A cold front is pushing through the CWA currently with northeasterly winds expected overnight tonight. Current satellite pictures are showing a decent fetch of upper level moisture moving across the CWA this evening in west-southwesterly flow aloft. Overnight low temperatures are still expected to remain above seasonal normals with upper 20s to mid 30s over the plains and mid teens to mid 20s in the mountains. There will be zonal flow aloft on Tuesday with plenty of mid and upper level moisture embedded. The QG Omega fields have weak upward energy for the CWA. Cross sections indicate there should be enough moisture scrapping the mountains for scattered light snow showers with the QPF fields indicating some light amounts as well. High temperatures will still be a bit above normal on Tuesday yet about 15-20 degrees cooler than today`s highs. Flat upper ridging with strong west-southwesterly flow aloft is expected Tuesday night all the way through Thursday night. The jet level flow across much of Colorado is progged in the 100-130 knots range through that period. There is fairly decent moisture in the mountains on Wednesday, however by later Wednesday night and Thursday model agreement is poor. The synoptic scale energy is weak through Thursday night. Just some of the models indicate enough QPF for advisory snowfall amounts later Wednesday night into Thursday for the Park Range in Zone 31. No highlights this update. Thickness grids continue to show temperatures above normal Wednesday and Thursday. For the later days, models are in pretty good agreement showing an upper trough with a closed circulation at the bottom well south over northwestern Mexico on Friday. This pushes northeastward Friday night, with the closed low still well south of the CWA over the southern half of New Mexico. Upper ridging moves in Saturday and Sunday, then southwesterly flow aloft on Monday. There is little to no upward synoptic scale energy for the CWA all four days. Moisture is limited with the best chances of light precipitation Friday and Friday night. After that, there is some spotty moisture around mainly in the mid and upper levels. There could be minor alpine snow showers Saturday through Monday. Temperatures look to be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals Saturday through Monday. Fire weather conditions will be elevated on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/... Issued at 1032 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026 VFR conditions will persist throughout the period. Winds at DEN by 23z should shift to more easterly given the development of a terrain-induced cyclone to the SW of DEN. Winds should eventually turn to SE and then to drainage in the evening hours. For tomorrow, there is some uncertainty as to which direction the winds will change to following the drainage winds. Went with VRB for now with an eventual NE around 21z and will allow this to be updated in a future package. A mid-level deck will develop throughout the day tomorrow at both DEN and APA. At APA, the aforementioned cyclone will bring E winds around 21z and then to drainage by around 04z as the cyclone breaks down. At BJC, there is a scattered stratus deck currently that will burn off as the day progresses. Light winds will shift from SE to NE throughout the day today into the night before becoming variable tomorrow morning. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...66 AVIATION...MV