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008 FXUS65 KBOU 172322 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 522 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer on Tuesday, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. - More active weather day shaping up for Wednesday with scattered severe thunderstorm threat. - Warmer again through the coming weekend with above normal temperatures. Drier Thursday and Friday, but some monsoonal moisture likely returns by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Monday/... Issued at 125 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Drier zonal flow aloft is now over most of the state today... and unsurprisingly that has led to warmer temperatures across the region, along with far less convection over our forecast area. We`ve seen a return to 90s today (92F at DEN so far), with dew points back down into the 30s across the metro. We haven`t completely mixed out the boundary layer moisture across the northern I-25 corridor and over the easterly plains, where there are still mid/upper 50s dew points and modest MLCAPE. Guidance still tries to spit out a couple of showers or thunderstorms there and the environment would support a couple of stronger storms assuming we get a real attempt at CI at some point this afternoon. A weak cold front is still on track to arrive sometime late Tuesday morning, which should introduce some better surface moisture to the I-25 corridor. The increased instability (along with increasing deep layer shear) will promote at least widely scattered thunderstorms, and it wouldn`t be surprising to see a couple strong to severe storms yet again during the afternoon... especially over the eastern plains. Stronger ridging is expected to develop during the latter half of the week, though we won`t see temperatures climb nearly as high as we did with our previous ridge. Forecast highs will return back into the mid 90s for the Denver metro with generally dry conditions. As we head into the weekend or early next week, the ridge is expected to briefly weaken and shift into a slightly more favorable location for monsoon moisture to make a brief return. Both Sunday and Monday have higher PoPs, though once again the NBM is likely a bit too bullish with PoP coverage across most of our forecast area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/... Issued at 516 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026 A boundary was moving towards DIA from the north and should arrive between 00z and 0030Z with a wind shift to the NE. By 02z winds will become more easterly and then SSE by 04z. By 07Z winds will become drainage and then light westerly by 11Z. At BJC expect a NE wind shift by 01z with winds becomning NW by 04Z. At APA, this boundary may wash out before reaching there as winds stay from the south. On Tue, light and variable winds in the morning will become NE between 19z and 20Z. For now, will keep in a prob30 by 20Z, for -tsra with brief gusty winds up to 40 mph possible && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hiris AVIATION...RPK