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885 FXUS65 KBOU 151201 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 501 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the plains today and Friday. - A cold front will bring strong winds and colder temperatures to to the plains tonight and Friday. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 251 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026 Water vapor satellite imagery showing the upper level high parked over northern California with northwest flow aloft over the region. Water vapor satellite imagery is also showing very dry air upstream over Wyoming and Montana. This will bring clear skies later tonight and most of Thursday. Temperatures rebound tomorrow from last night`s weak cold. Full sun and gusty downslope winds will help us maximize heating with temperatures expected to reach the lower to mid 60s over northeast Colorado. The warm, dry air and gusty winds, are expected to lead to critical fire weather conditions over a good portion of the plains Thursday afternoon. Therefore, issued a Red Flag Warning for the plains for Thursday. A shortwave trough currently moving onto the British Columbia coast will race eastward tonight and then southeast on Thursday, passing over the region late Thursday. A cold front will accompany this wave bringing strong north to northwest winds late Thursday night and Friday. The 12Z ECMWF and its ensemble members are showing light snow (less than an inch) after midnight over the eastern plains and Front Range Mountains. Meanwhile the GEFS are mostly dry with a little snow over the mountains. Winds continue to be the main concern Thursday night and Friday. Expanded the High Wind Watch to include Lincoln and eastern Elbert Counties where gusts to 65 mph will be possible. Because of the strong winds and expected dry conditions, issued a Fire Weather Watch for the northern foothills and the eastern plains for Friday. Temperatures will be about 20F degrees cooler Friday, but models are aggressive with drier air moving in during the day Friday. North to northwest flow aloft will persist this weekend and through the middle part of next week. We are still looking at dry conditions with the ridging to the west keeping Pacific moisture from reaching the area. Main weather features during this time frame will be gusty north winds at times and cooler/colder temperatures. On Saturday, models have been trending cooler and would not be surprised if they continue that direction. We`ll see arctic air accompany shortwave trough passing to the east of us in the northerly flow aloft. Models typically don`t bring the cold air far enough west in these cases. Highs are expected to be in the 30s with lower 40s possible across the urban corridor. Over the far northeast plains, can`t rule out highs only in the 20s. Temperatures rapidly warm Saturday night and into Sunday. A lee side trough forms over eastern Colorado and tracks eastward. Westerly downslope winds develop and scour out the colder air for Sunday. Temperature roller coaster continues into next week when on Monday, the next cold front and shortwave trough bring colder air back into the area. Much of the same can be said heading into the middle part of next week...warmer ahead of the shortwave troughs and colder behind them. Chances for rain/snow are still very low. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/... Issued at 438 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026 VFR conditions expected through tonight. Winds are slightly more west than typical drainage this morning with KBJC seeing westerly gusts between 25-35 kts for the past few hours. The stronger westerly gusts should persist at KBJC through around 14Z before a brief slackening is expected around 15-17Z. By 17Z, northwesterly winds are expected across the TAF sites becoming gusty between 18-19Z as mixing occurs. Guidance has been persistent with stronger gusts mixing down at KBJC between 18-21Z, where gusts around 35 kts will be possible. Gusts should stay slighter lighter at KDEN/KAPA (20-25 kts). Winds should slacken up a bit after sunset this evening before a cold front brings gusty north to northeast winds between 5-7Z. Gusts between 25-35 kts will be possible for a few hours with the initial passage. Despite a rather dry airmass expected behind the front, there is a low chance (15-20%) that ceilings drop to around 5,000 feet for a brief period sometime between 8-11Z. Gusty winds will continue to be the story on Friday, as NW to NNW winds are expected once again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026 It will be sunny, warm, dry, and windy Thursday across a good portion of the plains Thursday, leading to Red Flag conditions. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common with a few gusts reaching 50 mph. A strong cold front moves through Thursday night bringing colder temperatures and strong north winds for Thursday night and Friday. Even though it cools 20F for Friday, strong drying behind the front is expected to push relative humidity into the 15 to 25 percent range during the day Friday. For Saturday into next week, dry conditions will persist with no precipitation expected. Each day, relative humidities are expected to bottom in the 15 to 30 percent range. Weak disturbances embedded in the north to northwest flow aloft will bring windy conditions at times and elevated fire weather conditions. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for COZ215-238-242>246-248>251. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for COZ238-242>246-248-249. High Wind Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for COZ042-048>051. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for COZ046-047. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...9 FIRE WEATHER...12