894
FXUS65 KBOU 172211
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
311 PM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions over the plains east of I-25
  until sunset today.

- Light snow expected Sunday night - early Monday morning,
  possibly leading to poor travel conditions Monday morning.

- Otherwise more tranquil weather Sunday onward. Still dry through
  much of the week ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 215 PM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

Exceptionally dry air has moved across our forecast area with dew
points down to -19 F across the plains. Despite the cool
conditions, relative humidity has fallen to as low as 11 percent.
Conditions have met red flag criteria across the majority of the
plains. Winds will weaken quickly right before sunset and the Red
Flag Warning may be able to be canceled a bit early.

Brief ridging aloft will move over Colorado on Sunday leading to a
mild day. Downslope winds will allow high temperatures to reach
the low 50s across the plains.

A quick-moving through will pass through northeast Colorado late
Sunday night. There will be PVA and low level frontogenesis that
will combine to create lift. A band or two of snow will form
across northeast Colorado late Sunday evening. This system will
not have much moisture with it but snow ratios will be favorable
due to a relatively deep dendritic growth zone. NBM had PoPs and
QPF that were too low so those values were increased. The
forecast snowfall is between a trace and 2" for the majority of
the I-25 corridor, eastern plains, and foothills. The mountains
may see a bit more snowfall and the far northeast plains by
Nebraska may see no accumulation. The snow may lead to poor
travel conditions Monday morning due to snow-covered and slick
roads.

The northwesterly flow aloft will continue throughout the rest of
the work week. Minor shortwave troughs may bring very light snow a
couple more times throughout the week. Temperatures will go back
and forth between 5-10 F above normal to 5-10 below normal. No
other significant impacts are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1025 AM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for all terminals through the TAF
period. North winds have been slow to mix down, but should still
do so within the next 1-2 hrs, providing for a brief window of
breezier winds gusting 25-30 kts at KDEN. Chances are lower for
KAPA and particularly KBJC, which should remain on the fringe of
any N wind incursion.

Winds should weaken quickly past 21-22Z this afternoon, with a
short period of VRB winds prior to the return to SSW drainage
flow early evening for KDEN/KAPA. At KBJC, a weak mountain wave
will sustain steadier W flow overnight.

On Sunday, expect a gradual veering of winds from W to NNE through
the morning, with breezier NE winds in the afternoon for KDEN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ242-
244>251.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...BRQ

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion