National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
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828 FXUS65 KBOU 230552 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1152 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Record heat expected for Tuesday and Wednesday across much of the forecast area. - Elevated to critical fire weather concerns by mid-week as a result of the exceptionally warm and dry conditions. - Briefly cooler again to end the week, but well above normal temperatures again for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 1131 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Upper ridging will re-establish itself over the southwestern United States through Monday night and strengthen Tuesday and Wednesday as its center moves slowly east-southeastward. Northwesterly flow aloft now through Tuesday evening will become zonal by Wednesday and continue on Thursday. By 12Z Thursday, the upper ridge center is over the Texas Big Bend with a weak upper trough to push across Colorado through the afternoon. The synoptic scale energy is very weak to neutral for the CWA tonight into Thursday morning, with some weak upward energy noted on the QG Omega fields by afternoon on Thursday. Models now show deeper moisture, mostly in the mountains late day Monday and Monday night. There is even some in the lower levels. That coupled with the orographic enhancement, will warrant 30-40% pops Monday evening. There are some minor measurable precipitation amounts noted in the QPF fields. From Tuesday though Thursday, moisture is pretty sparse, just a bit in the upper levels here and there. For temperatures, there looks to be another round of record high readings for Tuesday and Wednesday; March 24th and March 25th. Readings should get into the lower 80s in Denver on Tuesday, and the upper 80s on Wednesday. That forecast high on Wednesday would set a new all-time record high temperature for March in Denver, surpassing the recently set 86 degrees on Saturday March 21st. Thursday highs cool down behind the cold front; into the 60s and lower 70s over the plains, which is still above normals. For the later days, Friday through Monday...More upper ridging dominates through Sunday, with a weak upper troughing on Monday. Above normal temperatures look to continue. Cross section show fairly decent moisture with the trough for Sunday night and Monday. Hopefully that pans out so we may see some much needed precipitation across the CWA. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1152 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for all terminals through the TAF period. Gusty SSE winds will continue for KDEN/KAPA through the next 2-4 hrs, but should experience an eastward retreat beginning near 08Z, with lighter drainage flow prevailing thereafter. Winds will become light and VRB Mon AM. HREF probabilities for exceeding 6 kts are approximately 50% for the Denver area, so with little model agreement in wind directions, TAFs reflect this with VRB groups through early afternoon. Guidance generally favors cyclone development mid-afternoon, and thus period of NE to SE flow for KDEN/KAPA before returning to drainage flow late evening. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...66 AVIATION...BRQ