316
FXUS65 KBOU 231121
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
421 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions expected through Christmas Day, with
  gustier winds for the high country/foothills on Christmas.

- Light to locally moderate mountain snow expected Friday into
  Saturday, favoring the Park Range.

- Cooler Saturday through Monday with temperatures falling closer to
  seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 105 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Upper-level ridging and compressional warming are leading to
exceptionally warm temperatures across the plains and urban
corridor in particular. The thermometer has shot up into the upper
70`s across the Denver metro, with Denver International Airport
already registering a high of 76F so far, the second warmest
December temperature on record, and a full 6 degrees above our
previous daily record for Dec 22nd. Tied to these warm
temperatures, it`s no surprise humidity remains in the single
digits and lower teens across much of the urban corridor and lower
foothills, with west winds gusting 30-60 mph sustaining fairly
widespread Red Flag conditions. The strongest of the winds will
be through the next 2-3 hours before gusty conditions begin to
quickly recede from the lower elevations and into the higher
terrain.

Fortunately, we`ll lose most of the wind component for Tuesday as
the jet edges slightly northward and pressure gradients weaken.
Otherwise there will be little change in the synoptic pattern as
we remain under the influence of the ridge axis centered to our
east. We do look to increase our high cloud cover which should
serve to limit the potential warming and keep us a few degrees
cooler than today, but high will nonetheless scrape 70F in our
warmest locations in/around the Denver metro.

It`s much the same story heading into Wednesday and Thursday, with
continued warm and dry conditions prevailing across the region.
The eastward movement of the SW-NE oriented jet on Christmas Day
will provide another compressional warming boost to plains and
urban corridor temperatures, likely pushing highs to or slightly
above daily record territory once more. The high country and
foothills will see a period of stronger winds Thursday-Friday with
peak gusts ~50-65 mph, though not nearly as strong nor as
widespread downwind as with recent events. Will monitor for areas
of elevated fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon, however
humidity levels shouldn`t be quite as low.

For the mountains, ensembles have generally trended away from much
Christmas Day precipitation, instead favoring the Friday through
Saturday period when there`s better alignment as far as the
deepest moisture. Nonetheless, we`re still talking about southwest
flow and relatively modest moisture amounts, which buffers
accumulation potential for many of our mountains, especially
outside of the Park/Gore Ranges. On the front end of this system,
the high valleys are still progged to be rather warm, so could
see rain mix in initially. Precipitation chances aren`t great east
of the mountains (~25% chance or less for light amounts Saturday),
although regardless we`ll see a notable cooldown, with
temperatures falling back close to seasonal normals by Sunday.

Ensemble guidance generally favors a return to drier conditions to
start the week along with milder temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 417 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025

Drainage winds will continue this morning at APA and DIA with
light and variable winds at BJC.  This aftn a shear axis will
be across the area.  Latest data suggest this boundary will
affect DIA by 22z as winds switch from south to light N or NNE.
APA should stay south thru the aftn with BJC having a light
E or NE wind by 20Z. For tonight the boundary should gradually
go away by early evening with winds becoming drainage by 04z.
Meanwhile VFR conditions will remain in place thru the period.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...RPK

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion