153
FXUS65 KBOU 231138
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
538 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms through
  Thursday. A risk of a couple severe storms each day.

- A few severe storms are expected across the plains again today,
  with isolated severe winds and hail possible. Best chances
  should stay east of the urban corridor.

- Slightly cooler (but still above) normal temperatures for
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Gradual drying and hotter temperatures by the end of the week
  and through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Showers have persisted through the night across the eastern plains
after yesterday`s severe storms lasted well into the evening.
These should continue to move eastward and completely out of our
forecast area right around sunrise this morning. Today is looking
to bring similar conditions to what we saw yesterday, with
scattered afternoon showers expected to develop across the higher
elevations and push eastward across the plains where better low-
level moisture and instability will reside. For today, however,
the better environment for severe potential is expected to move a
little eastward from yesterday, with a slightly lower concern for
the urban corridor today. There will still be a nonzero chance for
some strong to severe winds, however, as DCAPE is expected to
range from 1200-1500 J/kg that will support an elevated wind
threat. PWAT values remain elevated today as well (ranging from .8
to 1.5 inches across the lower elevations), that will keep the
potential for some localized heavy rainfall with the stronger
storms. MLCAPE is expected to be greatest generally east of Denver
International Airport, with upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg portrayed in
forecast soundings. Shear will remain the limiting factor for
more organized convection today, but 0-6 km bulk shear should get
up to 30-35 kts, which will be enough to see a few more organized
cells. Temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid 90s
before storms start and bring some heat relief.

It will be a wash, rinse, and repeat forecast through at least
Tuesday, with scattered afternoon showers and storms containing an
isolated severe threat. The pattern doesn`t change significantly
outside of the upper-level ridge flattening out as a shortwave
treks across the northern Rockies today and Monday. Temperatures
will cool slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday before the ridge
rebuilds across the Rockies, and warmer and drier conditions
gradually work their way back for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

We should see drainage winds turn clockwise through the morning,
becoming NE for the afternoon before showers and storm chances
will increase by 20-22Z. However, there is a chance that we just
end up with a few hours of light and variable winds ahead of
storms between 17Z-20Z. While there is a TEMPO in place for
thunderstorms in the TAFs, there is a more likely chance that the
airports are impacted by gusty outflows with shifting winds (30-40
kts), with storm chances remaining around 30-40%. The best timing
for impacts is expected to be from 21-24Z, a PROB30 is in place
until 2Z as there may be some lingering showers and outflows
around the TAF sites that will likely delay the onset of drainage
winds. Ceiling heights should remain about the same as Saturday,
with broken ceilings expected to move in ahead of storms as they
move off the mountains, dropping to ~8,000-9,000 feet AGL at their
lowest. Drainage winds are expected to settle in behind outgoing
showers/storms/outflows sometime between 2-4Z.




&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...9

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion