916
FXUS65 KBOU 051725
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1125 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few storms expected each day of the coming week, with the
  highest probabilities shaping up for Tuesday and Wednesday from
  the Front Range eastward.

- Isolated dry thunderstorms in mountains could spark new
  wildfires.

- Good agreement that significant heat wave arrives by next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 127 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Summer warmth will continue today as upper-level ridging builds
across the Rockies. This will warm afternoon high temps a few
degrees over Saturday`s with 90s forecast across the plains, 70s
and 80s for our mountain valleys. We will have less moisture to
work with, but there will still be enough for some high-based
showers/weak storms in the afternoon and evening, mainly for the
southern foothills and Palmer Divide. The main concerns will be
with gusty outflows/microbursts, as DCAPE is expected to range
between roughly 1200-1600 J/kg. Overnight low temperatures are
forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with 50s and 60s
expected for the plains, and 40s for our mountain valleys.
Guidance suggests patchy smoke will creep back northward along the
Front Range and urban corridor with overnight southerly winds
tonight that will make for some potential hazy skies on Monday.

700mb temperatures will increase by about 4 degrees C on Monday as
the ridge persists, translating to afternoon high surface temps
warming a few more degrees over Sunday`s. There will be a slight
chance for showers and weak storms once again, with the best
chances along the Front Range, Palmer Divide, and Cheyenne Ridge.

Precipitation chances will increase Tuesday through Thursday as
PWAT values are expected to increase to above normal values.
Instability and shear are looking to increase to values worthy of
supporting at least a few stronger to severe storms on Wednesday
and Thursday (30-35kts bulk shear and 500-1200 J/kg of MLCAPE),
with upper-level support from passing shortwaves to the north.
These shortwaves will flatten the ridge for mid-week, but it`s
looking like it will build back with force by the weekend.

There is still consistent agreement amongst guidance with 500 mb
heights showing highly significant +2.0 to +2.5 sigma anomaly,
representing an extreme high pressure ridge that will likely bring
significant subsidence and low-level warming and drying across
the forecast area. Ensemble means continue to show well-above
normal temperatures by Saturday afternoon, and near record-breaking
temperatures possible Sunday (KDEN record high for 7/12 is 102F
and the current forecast high is 101F).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Winds will become mainly easterly by 19z and remain E/ESE thru the
aftn. There will be isold to widely sct high based -shra from 21z
to 01z. At this time, best chc would be at APA and BJC with lower
chc (10%) at DIA. Any showers may produce brief gusty winds to 40
kts.

After 01z, winds will go more southerly and continue overnight.
Some smoke may move back in late tonight after 09z and linger thru
Mon morning.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...RPK

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion