736
FXUS65 KBOU 011153
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
553 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues through this morning over our eastern and
  southeastern counties.

- Isolated showers are possible Tuesday in the higher terrain due
  to a weak disturbance aloft.

- Warmer and drier for this weekend and mid-next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Current analysis shows the closed low centered near the New Mexico
and southeastern Colorado border with ample moisture indicated by
water vapor imagery. Light showers continue over Lincoln, moderate
to light over Washington, and light over far south/southeastern
Elbert county where dual pol storm total accumulations between the
communities of Punkin Center and Kutch shows potentially near 4" has
fallen. Short term model guidance indicates showers should continue
in our far east/southeastern counties until Thursday morning, and an
additional 0.25-0.50" could fall, especially in Lincoln county. Some
CAMs depict showers moving into the Denver metro as the night
continues, but based on the CAMs recent performance we don`t trust
these solutions very much. Nonetheless, we included a 15% chance for
a light shower to meager towards Denver through tonight. As the
system pushes off to our southeast, cloud cover will clear across
the area as the day continues Thursday providing some true sunshine
for the first time in a few days. High temperatures Thursday will
warm into the lower 70s in the plains and the urban corridor. The
mountains will see 50s and 60s.

After a rather interesting and complicated forecast early this week,
the weather pattern for us turns much more straightforward for
this period. This weekend a ridge builds over the state favoring
dry and above normal temperatures. Friday and Sunday will see
similar temperatures with upper 70s/lower 80s across the I-25
corridor, Denver metro, and eastern plains. Saturday will be a few
degrees warmer area wide in the low/mid 80s with some locations
in the eastern plains reaching the upper 80s. Additionally, a weak
cold front appears to makes its way through the northeastern
plains Saturday afternoon causing breezy conditions with gusts in
the 20-30 kts range. This front will take down temperatures making
for a cooler Sunday for the far northeastern corner.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday the patterns gets a touch more
interesting. Deterministic models shows a short wave moving across
our area, and forecast soundings depict some moisture moving in
aloft. Tuesday should be the greatest chance in the higher terrain
as the shortwave moves overhead and the moisture fills in. Tuesday
we currently have 20-30% across the high country. At this time
ensemble and deterministic guidance only shows a few members
providing rain for the I-25 and urban corridor. Forecast soundings
also indicate PWATs in the 0.6-0.7 range, but little low-level
moisture for the plains, so any confidence in measurable rain is
low at this time. Wednesday and Thursday the dry stagnant patterns
looks to return as the ridge develops overhead inducing upper 70s
and lower 80s for the plains with 50s and 60s in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/...
Issued at 512 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Northwest winds are in place across the TAF sites early this
morning, with northerly winds in place just off the deck at KDEN.
As expected, the northerly shift is bringing lower cloud decks
across the TAF sites, where broken to overcast ceilings are
currently observed around 8,000 feet AGL. Winds are still
expected to move clockwise through the day, becoming northeasterly
around 18Z/19Z. Ceilings are expected to lower slightly more
through the morning, but most guidance keeps them hovering around
7,000 feet AGL, with slightly lower ceiling potential at KAPA
(~6,000 feet AGL). With the persistent north to northeasterly
winds expected to pull in some better moisture from the north and
northeast, can`t rule out a brief period of slightly lower
ceilings (about 10-15% chance we see them drop as low as 3,000 to
4,000 feet AGL) with the best chances being between the 15Z-18Z
time frame. Ceiling heights should start to improve by late this
afternoon when winds shift to the east and then southeast. Some
enhanced southerly winds are possible late tonight for KDEN/KAPA
with gusts between 20-25 kts. Winds at KBJC are expected to be
light, with a NW direction for the overnight hours.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schnell
AVIATION...9

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion