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745 FXUS65 KBOU 192349 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 549 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled Tuesday through Friday with scattered to numerous showers and a few storms, most numerous in/near the Front Range. - Warming and drying trend for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 1259 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Water vapor satellite imagery showsan upper level trough over the Great Basin with southwest flow across Colorado. The right entrance of a 100-110 knot jet will provide lift for bands of showers. Radar and satellite imagery indicate this jet lift is increasing with showers currently forming. Showers will continue through the rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Best jet lift exits the area this evening, but upslope flow and ascent ahead of the trough should provide enough lift for light showers to continue tonight. The best chance for showers shifts over eastern Colorado by sunrise Wednesday morning. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and evening as upslope flow persist and lift ascent from the trough continues. Colorado will be between systems late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. We finally see some sunshine, which will push temperatures into the 60s. This will help destabilize the airmass, with SBCAPE climbing to 500-1000 J/kg. Lift increases throughout the day ahead of an upper level trough moving east- southeast across Wyoming. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon and evening. Depending on the amount of instability, a few of the storms could be severe. Something to monitor over the next two days. Areas of rain are expected to linger into the overnight hours Thursday and by Friday morning, rain showers will exit the eastern plains. Most of Friday is expected to be dry with temperatures in the 60s across northeast Colorado. A weak wave embedded in the flow aloft will bring scattered showers late Friday and early Saturday. An upper level ridge begins to build over the Central and Southern Rockies Saturday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms decrease, but there may be enough moisture for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s across northeast Colorado. Ridging will be centered over the Central Rockies Sunday and the first half of Monday. Temperatures will continue to warm under the ridge with highs in the 70s to lower 80s across northeast Colorado. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be very low Sunday, but increase Monday as the ridge slides off to the east late in the day. For next Tuesday, models show an upper level trough digging south across the northwest part of the country. Ahead of this, we should see a round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/... Issued at 547 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026 Ceilings were a bit higher this afternoon compared to what earlier guidance indicated. Will go with ceilings in the BKN- OVC020-045 range early this evening, then stick with the BKN- OVC010-025 range the rest of the evening and overnight. Will go with PROB30 groups for -SHRA from now into Wednesday afternoon. Also went with a PROB30 group for -TSRA Wednesday later afternoon. Confidence is low for any fog overnight at DIA so visibilities should stay at P6SM. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...66