575
FXUS65 KBOU 161811
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1111 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions today for much of
  the eastern plains and southern I-25 corridor.

- Very windy with critical to extremely critical fire weather
  conditions possible Tuesday for the lower foothills eastward
  across all of the eastern Colorado plains.

- Additional fire weather concerns for elevated to critical fire
  weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday.

- Snow returns to the mountains early Tuesday. Snow and blowing
  snow will lead to travel impacts across most of the higher
  elevations beginning Tuesday. Additional mountain snow possible
  through most of the week with continued travel impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 1141 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

One last day of well above normal temperatures is in store for
Monday, before a stretch of very active weather across most of
Colorado.

Monday is expected to be warm, dry, and breezy across the forecast
area, with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 60s across
most of the lower elevations. Southwesterly flow aloft will
gradually increase through the day, leading to a few gusts of
30-40 mph across the wind prone areas of the far southern
Foothills into the Palmer Divide and adjacent plains. This is
typically a fairly sheltered wind direction for most of the Denver
metro and northern I-25 corridor, with guidance hinting at some
sort of shear zone or Denver cyclone developing during the day.
That should limit wind gust potential along/north of I-76, and
thus we`ve cancelled the Fire Weather Watch for the Denver metro
and Morgan county.

Moisture is expected to slowly approach the mountains Monday night
into Tuesday, as the first of several shortwaves ejects out of the
parent trough over the western CONUS. Guidance is a touch slower
developing snow across the mountains, and the main change in this
period was to push the start of the winter weather highlights back
a few hours. We expect that the initial wave of snow Tuesday
morning into early Tuesday afternoon will be pretty impressive.
We`ll see favorable upper level divergence in the left exit region
of a potent, 180kt jet streak... in addition to increasing QG
ascent and steep lapse rates and even some modest instability
(MUCAPE of 100-250 J/kg). Though moisture depths are not overly
impressive and temperatures are initially warm, the combination
of snow and gusty winds (with 0-2km mean wind close to 35-45kt)
could lead to rapidly deteriorating conditions across the
mountains during the day Tuesday. I`m not sure if this takes more
of a classic snow "squall" appearance or is simply a well
organized push of snow... but by late afternoon snow should
transition towards orographic snowfall with a few transient bands
of heavier snow.

Meanwhile, the main story across the lower elevations will be
continued fire danger and strong winds. Guidance is perhaps a
little faster developing subsidence behind the initial shortwave,
and mid-level winds also look to be trending a little bit
stronger. With deep mixing likely developing during the afternoon,
BUFKIT profiles suggest fairly widespread 40-50 mph wind gusts
across the lower elevations, with a corridor of potentially
stronger winds from the Cheyenne Ridge into Washington/Lincoln
counties. Though confidence isn`t particularly high, we did expand
the High Wind Watch a bit where guidance at least hints at some
60-65 mph wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening hours.
There will also be fire weather concerns during the day, but that
is discussed in more detail in the fire weather section.

We`ll be in between shortwaves Tuesday night into Wednesday, but
cross sections suggest there will be enough moisture in the west-
southwesterly flow aloft for continued light to moderate snow
showers in the mountains. Wednesday`s shortwave looks to be a
little stronger, but also looks to track just a little to our
north by Wednesday night. This should bring another more organized
round of mountain snow and wind with additional light to moderate
snowfall amounts. Across the plains, elevated to critical fire
weather conditions will remain possible... but mainly to the south
of wherever the lee cyclone develops.

One last weaker shortwave arrives by Thursday or Friday, but there
is far less consistency across forecast guidance in this period.
Some models still try to get some wintry precip into the plains
with that wave, though the overall longwave pattern is not
supportive of any meaningful precipitation for the Denver metro or
plains. Temperatures do at least look much cooler, with highs only
in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Upper level ridging is generally expected to develop by next
weekend, but cooler northwesterly flow is expected to keep
temperatures near normal... at least for Saturday. Despite a
several day lead time, there is a strong ensemble signal for well
above normal temperatures to return by late weekend or early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1111 AM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR expected through at least Tuesday morning, but first the
winds. This afternoon a Denver Cyclone has formed southwest of
KDEN per TDEN, which means winds should make the rounds from
southeast (expected in the next hour) to northeast by 20Z-21Z to
NNW by 00Z. APA typically remains NNW with this type of cyclone
position, and the TAF reflects NNW 21-00Z or so. Once the cyclone
is east of DEN drainage winds will pick up at APA and DEN after
03Z, and be around 10 kts. BJC should be lighter (6-8 kts and
north) this afternoon before going variable after 01Z.

Winds will be a significant factor just about all day long on
Tuesday, starting at 08Z at APA and 09Z at BJC and DEN. Expect at
first strong southwest winds at all three terminals, gusting over
25 kts overnight and through sunrise. With these southwest wind
events, there is uncertainty as to if and when the stronger
southwest winds first pick up. Sometimes those stronger winds stay
just off the deck until better mixing from the sun gets going. For
now, risk is high enough to include the initial southwest push of
strong winds, and it helps having a 150+KT jet in the vicinity at
15Z before it slides south. Higher confidence for stronger west
winds after 16Z at DEN and after 17Z at APA and BJC, especially at
DEN with high res ensembles showing a 40% chance of getting gusts
over 40 kts after 16Z. Winds will be a tad less at BJC and APA
tomorrow afternoon but still just south of west gusting 30-35
kts.

A final complicating factor is precip/virga on Tuesday. After 15Z
there should be plenty of upward forcing for precip across the
terminals despite 25-30 kts sustained downslope flow. There will
be a ton of virga around after 16Z and lasting until probably
20/21Z. CIGs may drop to MVFR for periods of time when there is
the most virga, and if the virga is heavier/stronger than
anticipated, west wind gusts could reach 35-45 kts. Handling the
MVFR and stronger winds with a PROB30 for now because overall it`s
a much lower probability, with the main issue being the virga and
if the virga is stronger than originally forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1141 PM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

At least a couple more days of elevated/critical fire weather
conditions to go, before the pattern slowly improves by mid/late
week.

Monday`s forecast looks reasonably straightforward, with
south-southwesterly winds increasing through the afternoon as the
flow aloft strengthens. This setup typically results in a
pronounced shear zone or Denver cyclone, keeping most of the
Denver metro (FZ239/240) on the calmer, cooler side of the
circulation. Guidance is in good agreement about the general
location of stronger winds, from the far southern Foothills east
into the Palmer Divide and adjacent plains. Given the consistency
of model forecasts, the previous Fire Weather Watch for the
Denver metro (FZ240) and Morgan county (FZ244) was cancelled.

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely on Tuesday.
The flow aloft will continue to strengthen and turn more westerly
through the day, with increased mixing as a bora develops across
the forecast area. Model soundings continue to support widespread
gusts of 35-50 mph, with some stronger gusts likely over the
eastern plains. Overall moisture availability continues to be a
question mark and is the primary reason we have not upgraded to
Red Flag Warnings yet. There will likely be a broad gradient of RH
across the I-25 corridor into the eastern plains. Even with that
uncertainty, there is still broad support for critical fire
weather conditions for almost any location below ~7000ft. Nearly
every member of the GEFS HWDI is well above the 95th percentile
for any grid point in the plains. The ECMWF remains on the higher
end of the model distribution, painting a large area of single
digit RH sustained winds of 25-35 mph, and gusts of 45-55 mph
Tuesday afternoon. It is likely that almost all of the existing
Fire Weather Watch will be upgraded, but I wanted the full day
crew to have one more look before trying to refine the details.

Wednesday again looks dry across most of the forecast area, but
the lee cyclone starts to sink southward. Guidance does have some
elevated/critical fire weather conditions again during the day,
but generally south of I-70. Rather than try to guess on another
round of highlights, we opted to just wait this out another cycle
as well.

A more pronounced push of cooler air and moisture is likely to
arrive by the latter half of the week... and this pattern should
continue into the weekend.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 2 AM Tuesday to 5 AM MST Thursday for
COZ031.

Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 11 PM MST Wednesday
for COZ033-034.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for COZ215-216-238>251.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ216-241-
245>247-249.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
for COZ042-044>049.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...Schlatter
FIRE WEATHER...Hiris

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion