National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
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859 FXUS65 KBOU 041955 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 155 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy with elevated fire weather conditions for the northeast plains through the early evening. - Dry with a gradual warming trend through the middle of next week (outside of Monday). Elevated to critical fire weather conditions likely return by Wednesday (60% chance). - Unsettled weather returns for the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/... Issued at 154 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Relatively quiet weather is expected through Monday morning as weak ridging aloft dominates the weather pattern, with a surface high pressure sinking into the Great Plains. It is breezy across our northern and eastern plains, with current surface observations showing northwest gusts up to 45 mph at times. Expect those winds to gradually weaken after sunset. Warm and dry conditions will prevail through the weekend, with good guidance agreement of temperatures reaching up to the mid-to-high 60s on Sunday. Overnight Sunday/early Monday morning, a backdoor cold front will cool temperatures slightly for the plains. However, models are struggling on how to handle how far west the cooler temperatures are advected, as the ECMWF ensemble guidance continues to be about 8F warmer than the GEFS. With these scenarios, the front typically is able to make it all the way to the base of the foothills. For this reason, have continued to keep max temperatures lower than NBM guidance. Most of the plains will likely see temperatures in the high 50s/low 60s, rather than upper 60s. By Monday afternoon, the upper level ridge will begin to flatten over the Rockies as a 500-mb low enters the northwestern United States. With a little bit of moisture embedded in the westerly flow, there could be scattered light snow showers (30-40% chance) for our southern mountains. Some ensemble solutions in the GEFS/EPS even show rain showers for the northeastern plains Monday evening (