540
FXUS65 KBOU 021141
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
541 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions will develop in South Park
  today and possibly again on Friday.

- Isolated showers and storms will form mainly over east-central
  Colorado this afternoon and evening. A couple storms may be
  strong to severe in and near Washington and Lincoln Counties.

- Near normal temperatures with scattered showers and storms on
  July 4th. These storms have the potential to impact firework
  shows.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 445 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Moist air advected westward much quicker than anticipated last
evening leading to large hailstorms and flash flooding in Weld and
Logan Counties. This heavy rain has lead to a few other affects on
the forecast for this morning. It has created a strong outflow
boundary that has produced 45 mph winds at Akron and 25 mph
northeast winds at DIA. Some low clouds have formed at the base of
the foothills which is helping humidity recover in those areas.
This is pushing better moisture higher up into the foothills than
models had forecast. The affect this may have is to reduce the
high temperatures across the plains by a degree or two this
afternoon.

A surface boundary is expected to form over the Palmer Divide
this afternoon. Most high resolution models develop a couple
storms along this boundary mainly in Elbert, Lincoln, and
Washington Counties. If storms do develop, they may become strong
to severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts possible
primarily in Lincoln and Washington Counties. This boundary will
also have enough low level vorticity and 0-3 km CAPE along it that
a landspout tornado or two could develop. PoPs were increased in
this area this afternoon and evening.

South Park will continue to have fire weather concerns today as
southwest winds will be able to mix down to the surface during the
afternoon. With gusts around 30 mph and relative humidity as low
as 6%, a Red Flag Warning is in effect. Similar conditions may
also develop on Friday although lighter winds are expected.

On Friday, warmer air aloft will move over Colorado with increased
500 mb heights. This will lead to high temperatures across the
plains in the low 90s. Light east winds across the plains will
advect better moisture into northeast Colorado by the late
afternoon and evening. Models are beginning to focus on storms
developing near Cheyenne, WY as there will be the best surface
convergence and upslope flow in that area. Some of these storms
may move southeastward into Colorado Friday evening. Friday night
may be another period with nocturnal convection as moderate
instability will exist over northeast Colorado. If an outflow
boundary were to move into the foothills it could help develop
storms over the eastern plains of Colorado. There is a lot of
uncertainty with this period, however, so PoPs were left low.

Models are converging on a solution for Saturday that has moderate
easterly winds across northeast Colorado with dew points in the
upper 50s to low 60s across the eastern plains. The combination of
upslope winds, moderate to high moisture levels, and a weak
shortwave trough will combine to create scattered showers and
storms across the majority of our forecast area. This may be
unfortunate for those trying to observe firework shows but it is
possible the storms come to an end over the urban corridor around
sunset. Otherwise, Saturday will have near normal temperatures.

Sunday and into next week will see temperatures slowly warming
with isolated showers and storms most afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/...
Issued at 539 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Moist, easterly winds in the low levels have formed some patchy
low level clouds this morning. BJC will go back and forth between
a scattered and broken ceiling around 3,000-4,000 feet between now
and 14Z. The chance DEN and APA see similar ceilings is roughly
10%.

Winds will be weak for much of the morning hours at all airports.
East winds will develop and increase in speed throughout the
afternoon with gusts potentially around 25 knots at DEN around
00Z. There is a slight chance (10%) that showers and storms
develop near APA and DEN. These could produce gusty outflow winds
with gusts potentially near 40 knots. However, these storms should
stay far enough to the east of the terminals that little to no
impact is expected.

Smoke from wildfires will likely impact operations at DEN during
the afternoon and evening. Therefore, 6SM and FU were included in
the TAFs.

Winds tonight will eventually trend towards drainage with light
speeds.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
COZ214.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...Danielson

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion