854
FXUS65 KBOU 071825
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1225 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased moisture expected to bring an uptick in shower and
  storm coverage this afternoon and evening, with an isolated
  severe threat along the Cheyenne Ridge.

- Higher probabilities of thunderstorms with a few strong to
  severe storms possible from the Front Range eastward on Wednesday
  and Thursday.

- Isolated dry thunderstorms in mountains could spark new
  wildfires.

- Heat wave arrives this weekend, with minimal chance of any
  thunderstorms for heat relief.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 219 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Water vapor imagery shows moisture wrapping around an upper-level
ridge centered near the Four Corners early this morning. While
the better moisture will pass to our north, some mid-level and
upper-level moisture will make it into Colorado by this
afternoon, where high-based storms and showers are expected to
develop and move from west to east across the forecast area.
Isolated dry lightning will be possible across the higher
elevations through the afternoon. Gusty outflows will be the main
hazard for today`s convection, with forecast soundings showing
around 1500-1700 J/kg of DCAPE, and CAMs showing storms becoming
linear as they propagate eastward across the plains. The SPC has
highlighted areas along the Cheyenne Ridge with a Marginal Risk
for today (1/5 risk level) for an isolated severe wind gust and hail
threat, though the hail threat is expected to be minimal. Shear will
be a limiting factor for more organized storms today, with 0 to 6km
bulk shear ranging between 20-25kts, but the aforementioned DCAPE
values would support potential for severe winds between 60-70mph.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than Monday, but remain
in the mid to upper 90s across the plains. Patchy smoke will
persist along and east of the Front Range.

Storm coverage and strength will increase on Wednesday and
Thursday with higher instability and shear allowing for more
organized storm potential. CAMs show between 700-1400 J/kg of
MLCAPE across the plains on Wednesday, with the NAMNEST pulling
the higher instability all the way west to the urban corridor
(dewpoints in the 60s) where the HRRR keeps it primarily in the
far northeast corner (dewpoints in the 50s). The RAP seems to
split the difference, which would be aligned with the latest SPC
assessment where they have issued a Slight Risk for areas along
the Cheyenne Ridge to the NE/KS border for wind and hail, which
seems reasonable at this time since 0-6km bulk shear is also
expected to increase to 30-40kts in this same area. A slight
uptick in shear (30-45kts) is expected on Thursday that will bring
another day of a few strong to severe storms across the plains,
though the greater moisture is expected east of the urban
corridor, where the SPC has outlined a Marginal Risk for their Day
Three Outlook. Temperatures will gradually cool down each day,
with Thursday likely seeing afternoon highs sub 90F across the
plains.

Precipitation chances will begin to diminish on Friday as the
highly advertised upper-level ridge begins to build over the
Rockies. There will likely still be enough residual moisture in
place for some afternoon convection, but subsidence and lacking
shear will likely limit any real organization. Temperatures will
begin to increase, but a more noticeable warming is expected on
Saturday and into early next as temperatures reach for the
triple-digits. Precipitation chances will be limited under strong
subsidence.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1223 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Current radar imagery shows a cyclone centered southeast of KDEN,
east of KAPA. As such, we expect winds at KDEN to remain light and
easterly before turning to the ENE-NE around 20Z. Winds at KAPA and
KBJC are light and variable at the moment but likely to keep a
northerly component through the afternoon (more NE for KBJC).

An increase in cumulus cloud coverage is already being observed with
showers starting to develop over the foothills. We have kept the
TEMPO for -TSRA between 20Z and 24Z for the three airports, although
high-based showers may reach the vicinity of KBJC and KAPA as early
as 19Z. The primary concern with today`s storm activity will be dry
microbursts capable of producing erratic wind gusts up to 40KT.
Variable gusty winds may linger into the early evening (00Z-03Z) as
outflow boundaries from storm activity over the eastern plains reach
the Denver metro area. Light S-SSW winds are expected to return by
midnight and persist through the early morning. A very similar setup
will be in place tomorrow afternoon where we expect high-based
showers developing over the Denver metro with the primary threat
being gusty outflows (35-40KT gusts).

Wildfire smoke concentrations will continue to impact slant-range
visibility at least through sunset this afternoon. However, model
guidance continues to suggest decreasing concentrations due to a
shift to westerly/northwesterly flow at the mid-levels.
Therefore, we have kept smoke out of the TAF for tomorrow.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...AA

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion