658
FXUS65 KBOU 281124
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
524 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures again for the weekend into early
  next week.

- Areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions
  possible over the weekend becoming widespread Monday.

- Pattern change by the mid to latter portions of next week, but
  highest chances of meaningful precipitation still remain focused
  on the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 1156 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Southerly winds will increase across northeast Colorado late tonight
due to a tightening pressure gradient. Stronger gusts will
initially develop over and north of the Palmer Divide (already
seeing gusts between 35 to 40 mph as of 10:30 PM) before
strengthening and spreading east across Lincoln and Washington
Counties. The stronger gusts are expected across Arapahoe, Elbert,
Lincoln, and southern Washington Counties, where we could see
gusts as strong as 50-55 mph for a few hours before sunrise.
Guidance has focused in on the area where the aforementioned
counties meet being the prime location for the strongest winds to
occur, with the max winds expected between 2-5 AM. Areas from
Adams County northward shouldn`t expect gusts over 40 mph. These
winds will have a few impacts on the forecast for Saturday. First,
we could see overnight temperatures slightly warmer than forecast
for areas north of the Palmer, as the gusty winds keep the
boundary layer mixed and compressional warming stronger than
normal. Typical colder spots in low-lying areas may be less
pronounced due to these factors as well. If this occurs, there
could be some impacts on tomorrow`s high temps as well if we start
out warmer than expected, so something to watch for.
Additionally, while we expect the strongest winds to subside by
sunrise, speeds may remain marginal as RH drops to critical levels
(by 11AM to noon). This overlap could support a short window of
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions, though not
expected to meet the three-hour Red Flag criteria for the
majority of our far eastern plains. South Park and northeast
Larimer County (our typical windy areas north of Wellington) will
also see elevated fire weather conditions in the afternoon, but
with everything remaining marginal, no fire weather highlights
will be issued for Saturday. Afternoon highs will climb back up
into the upper 70s and low 80s across the plains, with our
mountain valleys warming into the 60s. Virga showers will be
possible in the afternoon that will likely produce nothing more
than a few sprinkles, but with inverted-v soundings showing DALR
up to about 500mb, these could produce some gusty outflows (30-40
mph) as they come off the higher terrain.

Sunday will bring similar conditions as Saturday aside from the
strong southerly winds in the morning. Expect some patchy elevated
to critical fire weather conditions over the far eastern plains and
along the Front Range Foothills.

By Monday, winds are expected to increase as a lee trough deepens
and WSW flow aloft strengthens. Fire weather concerns will become
widespread for the plains and foothills, and will likely need some
fire weather highlights in the upcoming day or two. This will be the
last well above-normal temperature day of the month before a cold
front slides south Monday night cooling things back down to slightly
below normal temps for Tuesday and Wednesday, and initiating a
long awaited pattern change. Things are still on track to see
some light precipitation across the plains with this front, and
some accumulating snowfall for our mountains. A more active
pattern is expected through the week, with a signal for at least
one more blast of winter possible next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday/...
Issued at 522 AM MDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR to prevail through tonight and Sunday. Southwesterly winds to
continue at DEN and APA the rest of the morning (18Z). Winds begin
to increase and turn more westerly ahead of the high-based showers
that are expected to form. Wind direction will likely change a few
times mid to late afternoon as high-based showers move across the
area. No rain is expected but gusty out flow winds of 20-25 knots
are likely. Added a tempo for variable winds to account for the wind
shifts as these high-based showers move through. After 01Z, winds
settle and become a southwest drainage direction towards 03-05Z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...12

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion