940
FXUS65 KBOU 191809
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1109 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers and scattered travel impacts lingering into
  this afternoon across the mountains and far northeast plains.

- Next chance (60%) for snow across Denver & I-25 Corridor is
  Friday afternoon and Friday night.

- Dry most of the weekend into early next week. Chilly start to
  the weekend, but a strong warming trend Sunday - Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 438 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

Canceled the High Wind Warning for this morning. The 700mb low
traveled a little more than 100 miles farther south than models
were showing yesterday, which resulted in the better westerly flow
and subsidence being over the southern half of Colorado. Not
surprising, snow also ended up farther south with snow as far
south as the northeast side of the Palmer Divide. Up to 2
additional inches of snow will be possible under the heavier snow
showers early this morning over the plains.

Will also allow the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory
for the mountains to expire at 5 AM. Light snow will linger this
morning with locally up to 2 more inches, but most locations will
see less than an inch. Mountain roads will be slippery this morning,
so if traveling in the high country give yourself extra time and
expect snow covered roads and slow travel.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 1054 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

An upper level disturbance over nrn CO tonight will move
eastward and exit nern CO by mid to late morning on Thu.  This
feature has favorable QG ascent associated with it so there will be
light snow over the far nern plains thru the morning hours with an
additional inch or so of accumulation possible.  In the mtns, there
will be areas of light snow thru the aftn. Meanwhile, in and near
the foothills there will be gusty winds thru 12Z Thu with a few
gusts up to 75 mph in the normal windy areas.

By Fri, another disturbance will move across the area with another
favorable shot of QG ascent.  This feature will bring another round
of snow to the mtns.  At lower elevations, cross-sections show
shallow upslope flow developing by Fri aftn with enough moisture to
produce light snow into early Fri evening.  At this time,
accumulations look to be an inch or less in most areas.

For Sat and Sun, drier air in WNW flow aloft will move into the area
with no precip expected either day.  Highs both days will be near
seasonal levels.

By early next week, the flow aloft will become more zonal with only
some mid and higher level moisture embedded in the flow.  With
downslope low level flow developing, highs will be back above normal
for Mon and Tue.  In addition, will likely see gusty winds at times
over the higher terrain as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/...
Issued at 1108 AM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

Just FEW stratus clouds around 2,000 feet lingering til about
19Z, before those eventually burn off completely. VFR will then
persist through about 18Z Friday, before clouds lower again and
lower to 5,000 feet or lower with IMC. We`ll also see light snow
showers develop in the area around 18Z Friday and remain in the
picture through the afternoon. There`s enough chance of light snow
to warrant TEMPO -SHSN 19Z-23Z, but only limited visibility
restrictions as any showers are expected to be quite light. Any
accumulation would most likely less than a half inch.

Wind forecast remains a tricky one. Models continue to show steep
low level lapse rates and the Denver area mixing into stronger
west winds aloft. However, ACARS soundings show a low level
inversion holding tighter with a more pronounced E-NE flow across
all of Denver metro at the present time. Thus, we think the
inversions will be slower to mix out (typical model bias being too
fast) and thus we`ll hold the northeast winds in place til
21-22Z. Even that may be too fast before a transition to NW
occurs. KAPA and KBJC would be more likely to go around to W-NW
than KDEN. After 00-01Z, winds transition to the south to
southeast through 06Z with a period of VRB likely. A Denver
cyclone is still likely to form 06-12Z Friday, with winds
eventually shifting more northerly (60-70% chance) by 12Z.
However, some uncertainty here since cyclone formation location
could end up very close to KDEN-KAPA so VRB winds also possible
through at least 15Z Friday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...12
DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...20

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion