844
FXUS65 KBOU 022056
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
256 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally critical fire weather conditions expected for southern
  Lincoln county through this evening.

- Turning blustery and colder tonight through Friday. A quick
  blast of snow is expected for the northern mountains, with
  impacts to the Thursday evening and possibly Friday morning
  commutes. Plains will remain mostly dry.

- Strong winds expected overnight and through Friday morning for
  portions of the mountains, foothills, and plains. Wind prone
  areas could get close to reaching high wind criteria, especially
  Friday morning.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected for the
  southeastern plains Friday afternoon.

- Dry with a gradual warming trend this weekend through early next
  week. Daily elevated fire weather conditions possible for South
  Park and portions of the plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Breezy winds have begun developing across the forecast area as the
upper level shortwave exits our region and flat ridging aloft
replacing it. So far, surface observations have shown the plains
warming up to mid-to-high 60s, with the mountains and mountain
valleys ranging between high 30s and low 50s. As breezy downslope
winds continue this afternoon, expect temperatures to continue to
rise to the low 70s across the plains. Aside from localized fire
weather concerns (see Fire Weather Discussion below), expect
relatively quiet weather for the rest of the afternoon. However,
lots to talk about with this next system that will impact our
forecast area tonight and Friday.

Current water vapor satellite imagery shows our next system in
southern Idaho. The 500-mb closed low will continue east this
evening and trek just north of Colorado around midnight tonight.
Colder temperatures and a quick blast of snowfall to the mountains
will likely affect the evening commute, particularly in the Park
Range. Model guidance is in good agreement of decent synoptic lift
over northern Colorado, with strong frontogenesis at 700-500 mb
levels. Ample mid-level moisture will be advected into the region,
with ensemble solutions ranging between 0.25" to 0.40" of QPF for
the Park Range area (ECMWF ensemble continues to have slightly
higher QPF amounts than the GEFS). With snow-to-liquid ratios
reaching up to 15:1 due to 700 mb temperatures advecting colder air
into the region (temperatures expected to be as low as -12C to -
13C), it is very possible that we get a 6 to 9 hour window of
snowfall accumulations between 3-8", with localized higher amounts.
Due to this potential occurring during the evening commute, have
decided to go with a Winter Weather Advisory for the Park Range and
northern Gore Range. Moderate snowfall rates and blowing snow can
reduce visibilities at times while driving. In addition, with the
colder temperatures, snow is likely to stick to the ground, creating
slick road conditions Thursday night and possibly for Friday morning
as well. Mountain snowfall is expected to stick around (40-60%
chance) through Friday as moisture should wrap behind the exiting
system. However, any additional accumulations will be light due to
less moisture availability and overall stable air.

For the plains, a strong cold front associated with the low will
shoot through the plains around midnight tonight. Little, if any,
precipitation is expected with this frontal passage due to downslope
flow. However, hi-res guidance do show the potential (about a 20%
chance) for an isolated shower for the northern plains, where the
jet and frontogenesis line up the best over the plains. Behind the
front, strong north/northwest winds are expected, with gusts up to
45 mph at times overnight and into the morning.

On Friday, widespread strong winds are expected for the mountains,
foothills, and plains, with some wind prone areas close to reaching
high wind criteria in the morning. Strong subsidence aloft, as
evident in impressive downward QG fields, will promote mixing and
downward momentum transfer of mountaintop winds to the surface.
Models show a 700-mb jet of 40-60 kts Friday morning, which will
help produce gusts up to 60-70 mph along the Front Range mountains.
Any additional snowfall at this time will result in blowing snow. In
addition, gusts across the foothills and areas west of the I-25
Corridor could reach up to 55 mph, particularly between mid-morning
and early afternoon. For the rest of the plains, it will be windy
all day, with gusts up to 45 mph expected through the evening.
Elevated to briefly critical fire weather conditions are also
possible for the southern plains Friday afternoon. Will talk more in
the Fire Weather discussion below.

Aside from elevated fire weather conditions this weekend and into
early next week, relatively quiet weather is expected. Weak ridging
aloft will dominate the weather pattern through Monday, bringing
warming and dry conditions to the region. Aside from a possible
backdoor cold front on Monday, ensemble guidance continues to be in
agreement of temperatures reaching the 60s each day, with heat
peaking around midweek, where temperatures may once again climb to
the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/...
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR to persist through the TAF period. Winds have become light and
variable early this afternoon, but should start to transition to
the WSW and increase in magnitude by later this afternoon in the
21-23Z time frame. WSW gusts between 22-26kts will be possible at
KDEN, with slightly higher gusts possible at KAPA/KBJC. A cold
front is expected to pass across the TAF sites late tonight
(between 4-7Z) bringing gusty north/northwest winds before
westerly winds become even stronger early Friday morning. There is
a chance for a few hours of gusty WSW to mix in with the more
predominate westerlies between around 13-16Z (up to 35-40kts).
While winds are expected to remain gusty westerly at KBJC through
the day Friday, KDEN and KAPA should see a more NW turn with some
slackening winds expected after the 17-18Z time frame. No ceiling
issues are expected, but should see some lowering of ceilings with
the cold front late tonight, with BKN to OVC skies down to around
10,000 AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for
southern Lincoln county today, where a Red Flag Warning in currently
in effect. Current surface observations show relative humidities
dipping below 20%. We do expect RH to continue to drop this
afternoon, to 15% or slightly lower, with southwest winds gusting up
to 35 mph at times. A cold front is expected overnight tonight, with
winds changing from the southwest to the northwest.

For Friday, another round of elevated to critical fire weather
conditions are expected for the southeastern plains, despite cooler
temperatures in the mid-to-high 50s. Widespread marginal relative
humidity values between 15-20% are expected for the plains. However,
for Lincoln county and portions of far eastern Elbert county, RH has
the best chance to dip below 15% by the afternoon. It will be windy
throughout the day, with northwest winds gusting up to 35-40 mph
at times. These conditions, combined with the lack of recent
precipitation (including northern Lincoln county where they
received only 0.10" of rainfall on Wednesday) will promote rapid
fire spread. For this reason, have opted in to issue a Red Flag
Warning for Lincoln county and portions of far eastern Elbert
county.

Daily elevated fire weather conditions are expected for the plains
and South Park this weekend and early next week due to dry and warm
conditions. However, winds will continue to be the limiting factor,
as gusts should stay below 25-30 mph. The exception would be
Saturday, where subsidence aloft would help mix strong 700-mb winds
to the eastern plains.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM MDT
Friday for COZ031.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ246-247.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ247.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...9
FIRE WEATHER...MAI

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion