885
FXUS65 KBOU 151201
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
501 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the plains
  today and Friday.

- A cold front will bring strong winds and colder temperatures to
  to the plains tonight and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 251 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery showing the upper level high parked
over northern California with northwest flow aloft over the
region. Water vapor satellite imagery is also showing very dry air
upstream over Wyoming and Montana. This will bring clear skies
later tonight and most of Thursday. Temperatures rebound tomorrow
from last night`s weak cold. Full sun and gusty downslope winds
will help us maximize heating with temperatures expected to reach
the lower to mid 60s over northeast Colorado. The warm, dry air
and gusty winds, are expected to lead to critical fire weather
conditions over a good portion of the plains Thursday afternoon.
Therefore, issued a Red Flag Warning for the plains for Thursday.

A shortwave trough currently moving onto the British Columbia
coast will race eastward tonight and then southeast on Thursday,
passing over the region late Thursday. A cold front will accompany
this wave bringing strong north to northwest winds late Thursday
night and Friday. The 12Z ECMWF and its ensemble members are
showing light snow (less than an inch) after midnight over the
eastern plains and Front Range Mountains. Meanwhile the GEFS are
mostly dry with a little snow over the mountains. Winds continue
to be the main concern Thursday night and Friday. Expanded the
High Wind Watch to include Lincoln and eastern Elbert Counties
where gusts to 65 mph will be possible. Because of the strong
winds and expected dry conditions, issued a Fire Weather Watch for
the northern foothills and the eastern plains for Friday.
Temperatures will be about 20F degrees cooler Friday, but models
are aggressive with drier air moving in during the day Friday.

North to northwest flow aloft will persist this weekend and
through the middle part of next week. We are still looking at dry
conditions with the ridging to the west keeping Pacific moisture
from reaching the area. Main weather features during this time
frame will be gusty north winds at times and cooler/colder
temperatures. On Saturday, models have been trending cooler and
would not be surprised if they continue that direction. We`ll see
arctic air accompany shortwave trough passing to the east of us in
the northerly flow aloft. Models typically don`t bring the cold
air far enough west in these cases. Highs are expected to be in
the 30s with lower 40s possible across the urban corridor. Over
the far northeast plains, can`t rule out highs only in the 20s.
Temperatures rapidly warm Saturday night and into Sunday. A lee
side trough forms over eastern Colorado and tracks eastward.
Westerly downslope winds develop and scour out the colder air for
Sunday. Temperature roller coaster continues into next week when
on Monday, the next cold front and shortwave trough bring colder
air back into the area. Much of the same can be said heading into
the middle part of next week...warmer ahead of the shortwave
troughs and colder behind them. Chances for rain/snow are still
very low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/...
Issued at 438 AM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions expected through tonight. Winds are slightly more
west than typical drainage this morning with KBJC seeing westerly
gusts between 25-35 kts for the past few hours. The stronger
westerly gusts should persist at KBJC through around 14Z before a
brief slackening is expected around 15-17Z. By 17Z, northwesterly
winds are expected across the TAF sites becoming gusty between
18-19Z as mixing occurs. Guidance has been persistent with
stronger gusts mixing down at KBJC between 18-21Z, where gusts
around 35 kts will be possible. Gusts should stay slighter lighter
at KDEN/KAPA (20-25 kts). Winds should slacken up a bit after
sunset this evening before a cold front brings gusty north to
northeast winds between 5-7Z. Gusts between 25-35 kts will be
possible for a few hours with the initial passage. Despite a rather
dry airmass expected behind the front, there is a low chance
(15-20%) that ceilings drop to around 5,000 feet for a brief
period sometime between 8-11Z. Gusty winds will continue to be the
story on Friday, as NW to NNW winds are expected once again.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

It will be sunny, warm, dry, and windy Thursday across a good
portion of the plains Thursday, leading to Red Flag conditions.
Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common with a few gusts
reaching 50 mph. A strong cold front moves through Thursday night
bringing colder temperatures and strong north winds for Thursday
night and Friday. Even though it cools 20F for Friday, strong
drying behind the front is expected to push relative humidity into
the 15 to 25 percent range during the day Friday.

For Saturday into next week, dry conditions will persist with no
precipitation expected. Each day, relative humidities are expected
to bottom in the 15 to 30 percent range. Weak disturbances
embedded in the north to northwest flow aloft will bring windy
conditions at times and elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
for COZ215-238-242>246-248>251.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this
evening for COZ238-242>246-248-249.

High Wind Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for
COZ042-048>051.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for
COZ046-047.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...9
FIRE WEATHER...12

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion