006
FXUS65 KBOU 080543
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1043 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend Sunday through Monday/Tuesday.

- Next chance for light precipitation Tuesday night into early
  Wednesday.

- Increasing winds and fire weather concerns possible for the
  second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 1042 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Dry WNW flow aloft on Sun will become more westerly on Mon.
Meanwhile, sa fc lee trough will develop on Sun and strengthen on
Mon. As a result, will see increasing downslope low level flow
with warmer temps. Highs on Sun will be in the upper 50s to mid
60`s with 70`s on Mon over nern CO. Winds will increase on Mon
over the higher terrain and at lower elevations near the WY border
but speeds will stay blo high wind thresholds.

On Tue, westerly flow aloft will remain in place with downslope low
level flow at least along the I-25 Corridor. An initial cool front
may affect portions of the nern plains, however, latest data suggest
it may stall out before a stronger front arrives Tue evening.  Thus
may see a 10 degrees difference in highs across nern CO with
readings in the mid to upper 50s over the far nern plains with mid
to upper 60s closer to the I-25 Corridor.  For Tue night, an upper
level trough will move across the High Plains with nrn CO being on
the srn edge of this feature.  Latest cross-sections continue to
show varying amounts of moisture with this feature.  Once again the
ECMWF has more moisture than the drier GFS.  Have kept pops similar
to previous fcst for now.  Portions of nern CO will be in the left
front quadrant of an upper level jet so there may end up being a
better chc of light pcpn over the far nern plains.

By Wed, drier air in NW flow aloft will move into the area as
southerly low level flow develops over ern CO.  Highs on Wed will
drop back into the 50`s over the plains.   On Thu, the flow aloft
will become more WNW as a sfc lee trough develops east of the mtns.
Thus downslope low level flow will occur with warmer aftn highs.
Meanwhile with stg mid level flow will likely see some potential
for high winds over portions of the higher terrain Thu and Thu night.

For Fri, mainly dry WNW flow aloft will continue.  Models continue
to show a front trying to backdoor into nern CO by aftn, however,
rather stg low level WNW flow may keep it over the far nern plains.
Thus most of the area will see another day of above normal temps
along with gusty winds.

Looking ahead to Sat, the flow aloft will become more westerly as
sfc low pres intensifies from ern WY into ern CO.  This will allow
for stg downslope low level flow with windy and dry conditions
along with above normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/...
Issued at 1041 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the period with only SCT high
level cirrus clouds. South/southwest winds will persist at KDEN
and KAPA through 18Z, and then may become VRB for a few hours due
to influences of local snow cover. There should be a lean toward
W-NW winds toward 22Z-23Z due to mixing, but uncertainty is rather
high and roughly a 50-50 chance they go W-NW or just stay VRB
thanks to the snow field. KBJC will see occasional west gusts to
20-28 kts for this TAF period, most persistent through 12Z, and
then again after 18-20Z Sunday due to mixing.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...20

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion