718
FXUS65 KBOU 152321
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
521 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- First freeze of the season expected over most of the plains
  tonight.

- Chilly but dry/sunny weather Friday, with another freeze north
  and east of the Denver metro area Friday night.

- Mainly dry and warmer for the weekend through the middle of next
  week.

- Next storm system will arrive late next week with an increasing
  chance of showers and mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Clouds were starting to break up, and clearing will continue
through the rest of the day. Cold/dry advection will continue
through tonight, leading to the season`s first freeze across most
if not all of the plains and I-25 Corridor. That`s despite a light
breeze that will remain over the eastern plains. We expect
overnight lows to be mostly in the mid to upper 20s across the
plains, with upper 20s and lower 30s along the I-25 Corridor
(warmest over the western Denver suburbs).

Despite a return to full sunshine on Friday, temperatures will
remain quite chilly and several degrees below normal. High
temperatures will stick mostly in the mid to upper 50s over the
plains. It will be cold again Friday night, with another freeze
and mid to upper 20s over the low lying areas of the plains, but
some warming along the downslope areas of the I-25 Corridor.

This weekend will turn warm again as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the Central Rockies Saturday, and then warm
southwest flow occurs on the back side of the ridge Sunday. Highs
should mostly reach the 70s across the plains. In the mountains,
we can`t rule out a weak shower or two Sunday afternoon as a touch
of mid level moisture returns.

Southwest flow strengthens through the middle of next week as a
deep trough of low pressure moves down the Pacific Coast. That
keeps us in a warmer than normal pattern, but a chance of showers
will return mostly for the high country.

We are watching the arrival of the next storm system for the
latter portions of the week, when the West Coast trough pushes
east across the Rockies. Ensemble systems overall keep the
highest probabilities (50-70%) of 1" or more of liquid equivalent
from the northern mountains into southeast Wyoming and the
Nebraska Panhandle, and remain relatively light over the I-25
Corridor and plains. However, there are a few outliers that bear
watching as the trough does have an opportunity to become
negatively tilted. It`s just that for now the majority of the
ensembles support the storm track and heavier precipitation swath
staying just staying just to our north.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 514 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR conditions will be in place thru the period. Winds have
already decreased at all sites from the north. Winds will
gradually become light and variable by 02z.  A secondary front
will move across the area around 06z with a NNE wind shift.
Winds will be in the 10-14 mph for a few hours behind it. Winds
will gradually become light and variable again by 10z and then
transition to light SSW at DIA by 13z with light south winds
at APA. By 16z, winds will become light easterly and continue
thru the aftn at all three sites.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for
COZ038>051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...RPK

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion