200
FXUS65 KBOU 221133
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
533 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief drop to near normal temperatures Sunday.

- Return of unseasonable warmth, potential record heat, and more
  fire weather concerns again by Tuesday and Wednesday. Record
  heat increasingly likely (>80% chance) across the Denver metro.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 1031 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Our well-advertized heat wave has peaked today, with a new monthly
high temperature record set at DIA...86 F. While we failed to reach
90 F at the airport, there were many places across the plains with
max temperatures between 90 and 92 F.

A brief cooldown is expected tomorrow, as a cold front sweeps across
the forecast area later tonight. Current surface observations shows
the cold front passing central Wyoming and northern Nebraska.
Expect the front to arrive in Colorado closely after midnight
tonight, bringing northeast wind gusts up to 45-50 mph overnight,
particularly for the northeastern and eastern plains. However,
can`t rule out a rogue gust up to 60 mph, as some observation
stations north of Colorado have occasionally gusted that strong
with the frontal passage. Winds should weaken by sunrise, with
temperatures rising up to the mid-60s by the afternoon.

Moisture will be advected into the region behind this front,
bringing a reprieve of critical fire weather conditions and allowing
surface relative humidities to remain above 20% throughout the
day Sunday. Hi-res guidance does indicate light rain/snow showers
for the Front Range (with rain/snow mix only expected for the
highest elevations due to the relatively warm air mass). However,
if any precipitation falls, expect it to be very light.

Warmer conditions return on Monday, as the upper level ridge begins
rebuilding over the southwestern United States. However, the ridge
will be more elongated, resulting in almost zonal flow aloft.
Guidance does indicate another round of Pacific moisture being
pushed into the region, with only light showers possible for the
higher elevations. Temperatures will reach up to the mid 70s.

Record high temperatures and elevated-to-critical fire weather
conditions are likely again Tuesday and peaking Wednesday. Increased
zonal flow aloft may bring breezy downslope winds across the
plains and aid in compressional heating. However, there is a
little uncertainty with that, as most recent model runs have
backed off on how strong flow aloft will be. The upper level jet
streak looks to stay well north of Colorado now. With 700-mb
temperatures reaching up to +14 C, temperatures will be in the
high 70s/low 80s on Tuesday and in the mid-to-high 80s Saturday.
This is further supported by the GEFS/ECWMF/CMC ensemble guidance
showing 80-90% chance of surface temperatures greater than or
equal to 80 degrees on Wednesday.

There is still some uncertainty in the forecast past Wednesday, as
an upper level shortwave with an associated cold front will pass
sometime Thursday or Friday. There is a lot of disagreement in terms
of strength and timing of the front. This has lead to a large max
temperature spread, with ensemble solutions varying between high 50s
and 80s as the high temperature for Thursday. Most recent NBM run
has trended temperatures slightly lower (From high 70s as the max to
now the low 70s), which seems reasonable at this time due to the
uncertainty. After the passage of the cold front, expect
temperatures to once again warm up to the 70s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday/...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A relatively narrow deck of stratus producing CIGS of 010-018 is
traversing NE to SW across the terminals early this morning. It`s
anticipated this deck will continue moving SW, allowing for
dissipation of ILS conditions at KDEN and transition to FEW-SCT
low clouds by ~13Z. CIGS may hold on at KBJC/KAPA an additional
1-3 hrs before better scattering occurs. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail for all terminals thereafter.

As far as winds are concerned, frontal winds have subsided with
weaker N/NNE flow in place. Expect continue NNE/NE flow with a
very gradual clockwise rotation to easterly winds early/mid
afternoon, followed by SE and eventually drainage flow. Tonight`s
drainage winds will be pronounced for KDEN and KAPA, with gust
potential of 20-25 kts, mainly after 08Z Mon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...BRQ

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion