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709 FXUS65 KBOU 012106 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 206 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Next chance (20-40%) of snow for the area, mainly the mountains and Palmer Divide, is later Tuesday into early Wednesday. Snowfall amounts look light. - Warm and dry late next week and next weekend (Thu-Sun). && .DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/... Issued at 206 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026 Upper level ridge sliding east across the region brought mostly sunny skies, light winds, and mild temperatures today with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s across northeast Colorado. Water vapor satellite imagery showing a weak shortwave trough moving east across the Pacific Northwest. This shortwave travels east- southeast across the Northern Rockies tonight and Monday. We`ll see an increase in high clouds tonight. Because of the high clouds and mild airmass, not surprising we`ll see above normal overnight lows. For Monday, high clouds persist through the morning. A weak cold (more like cool) front associated with the shortwave trough pushes southward through the area Monday morning. Northeast winds pick up with gusts to 25 mph. High temperatures will be 5 to 10F degrees cooler tomorrow with highs in the 50s across northeast Colorado. Northwest flow aloft continues for Tuesday. Temperatures cool a little more under this pattern with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s for northeast Colorado. For Tuesday night, a shortwave and a jet pushes south across Colorado. The left exit region of the jet will produce lift Tuesday night, but moisture will be limited as this system travels southeastward across the North American Rockies. Ensembles are about 50/50 if the Denver area sees snowfall or not. The half that shows snow, all keep snowfall amounts light. The best chance for snow with this system will be over the mountains and Palmer Divide where orographic lift will also add to the lift. Light snow or a few flurries could linger into Wednesday, but with subsidence moving in, skies are expected to quickly clear Wednesday. Temperatures at 700mb start off -7 to -11C Wednesday, but warm through the day. Highs for Wednesday will be slightly cooler again with mid 40s to lower 50s expected. For Thursday through next weekend, a strong blocking upper level high that`s been to our west shifts eastward over the Central Rockies for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures warm back up with highs reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s for northeast Colorado. Not much change for Saturday and Sunday as well. Large ridging continues across the western half of the country. Models tend to show a weak shortwave trough under cutting or passing through the ridge. If this were to occur, we may see an increase in high clouds, but still no precipitation. The 12Z ECMWF ensembles and GEFS all show Thursday through Sunday staying dry. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/... Issued at 1037 AM MST Sun Feb 1 2026 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds are becoming light (generally less than 10 kts) and VRB for DEN and APA, and will eventually transition to SE by 23Z/00Z. For BJC, expect light winds with westerly gusts up to 15 kts at times through 21Z. Typical drainage pattern this evening and overnight. By late morning tomorrow, winds will shift to the NE, with brief gusts up to 15-20 kts possible. Light NE winds under 10 kts expected by 21Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...12 AVIATION...MAI