National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

Thornton Weather Forecast   
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264
FXUS65 KBOU 061156
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
556 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures and a few storms expected each day this week,
  with the highest probabilities shaping up for Tuesday through
  Thursday from the Front Range eastward.

- Isolated dry thunderstorms in mountains could spark new
  wildfires.

- Significant heat wave arrives this coming weekend, with minimal
  chance of any thunderstorms for heat relief.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 102 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Another hot day is expected to kick off the week, with afternoon
highs climbing into the mid to upper 90s across the plains while
we remain under an upper-level ridge. With increasing mid-level
moisture expected by this afternoon, there will be potential for
some high-based showers to move off the higher terrain, but with
marginal instability and inverted-v forecast soundings showing
DCAPE ranging from 1200-1700 J/kg, the main expectation is for
gusty outflows (35-45 mph) and little to no precipitation with the
majority of anything that develops. The best chances will be
along the Front Range Mountains, Palmer Divide, and Cheyenne
Ridge. Clouds should diminish through the evening, and overnight
temperatures are forecast to be about five to ten degrees above
normal across the forecast area.

The forecast remains largely unchanged for the extended period as
ensembles continue to show fairly good agreement with the synoptic
pattern. We are still expecting a slightly more active pattern
from Tuesday to Thursday, with growing potential for a few
stronger to severe storms each day as instability and shear
gradually increase through the week. Slightly cooler temperatures
are expected for midweek before another warming pattern starts
again Friday. Ensembles do start to show some discrepancies by
the end of the week with how hot temperatures will get under an
anomalously high upper-level ridge. The GEFS continues to be a
few degrees warmer than the ECMWF, but there is high confidence
that we see multiple days of above normal temperatures, reaching
for record highs next weekend and into early next week across the
forecast area. Will have to continue to monitor as there is a good
chance we reach Heat Advisory criteria sometime this weekend and
possibly early next week.

Scattered storms will be possible on Friday before stronger
subsidence sets in under the ridge, suppressing any precipitation
potential for the weekend. With multiple days of hot and dry
weather, fuel conditions will need to be monitored closely as
this would be a recipe for increasing fire weather concerns next
week, particularly if winds increase or dry thunderstorms return.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 535 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

South to south-southwesterly winds are in place at KDEN/KAPA with
light and VRB winds at KBJC early this morning. Smoke is visible
once again in webcams across the KDEN airfield, and suspect this
will cause some slant-range visibility concerns until better
mixing occurs through the morning.

Main concerns for today will be similar to yesterday, with high-
based showers bringing potential for gusty outflows/microbursts
between 21Z-1Z. Shower coverage does look slightly more than
Sunday, which could lead to some outflow boundaries passing across
the airfields from both the north and south through the evening.
Forecast soundings portray inverted-v profiles with DCAPE
expected to range from 1500-1700 J/kg, which would support some
strong microbursts (35-45kts) if a virga shower does pass over.
Confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF yet, but have
kept VCSH in for the timing that would have the best chances.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...9

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion