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National Weather Service Forecast Discussion |
National Weather Service Forecast 48 Hour Graphical Forecast Today's Weather Story |
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000 FXUS65 KBOU 271755 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1055 AM MST Wed Jan 27 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1055 AM MST Wed Jan 27 2021 Area of patchy fog over the northern urban corridor and into Weld County continues to erode with visibility improving. However, with the erosion being slower than expected, and the cold pool of air below it with warm advection aloft, will expect this cold pool to persist through the day. Viewing some high res guidance, have cooled high temperatures today over the South Platte Valley, and areas north of the expected Denver Cyclone boundary. Southerly winds off the Palmer Divide will allow temperatures to likely reach into the low to mid 40s there, while north of the boundary (a line from Golden northeast to DIA and into southern Weld County) will remain under the cold airmass. Temperatures will likely stay in the low to mid 30s, though the latest runs of the HRRR keeps readings in the upper 20s. Have adjusted the max temperature forecast today to reflect cooler temperatures in the aforementioned areas. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 315 AM MST Wed Jan 27 2021 An upper level ridge will build over the area today and tonight with the flow aloft gradually becoming more southwesterly. Outside of some mid and high level moisture moving across no precip is expected. For this morning, good radiational cooling and light winds combined with moisture, from recent light snow, is allowing for the development of fog and low clouds along nrn portions of the I-25 Corridor. Overall coverage of dense fog so far has been limited. HRRR has been no help as each hour it has a different solution as to how widespread it may be. Will continue to see how things evolve the next few hours before issuing an advisory. As for highs this aftn, not sure about overall snow cover across the plains. For now will keep readings in the 35 to 40 degree range but areas with no snow cover could reach the lower to mid 40s. Closer to the front range HRRR has a Denver Cyclone this aftn with readings staying in the upper 20s on the back side of the cyclone over the nwrn suburbs into swrn Weld county. For tonight, winds will increase over the higher terrain as the flow aloft strengthens. Thus will see gusty winds develop after midnight. However speeds will stay below highlight criteria. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 315 AM MST Wed Jan 27 2021 On Thursday, the high pressure ridge aloft will shift eastward across the central plains resulting in an increasing southwest flow aloft over Colorado. With this flow, thermal ridge builds into Colorado as 700mb temperatures climb to around +2c on the plains. This will result in warming temperatures back into the upper 40s and 50s across the plains. Expect much of the snow cover on the ground to be gone after Thursday. On Friday, continued southwest flow aloft in response to incoming Pacific system moving into the Great Basin. Generally dry through much of the daytime, but expect an increase in snow showers across the mountains with approaching trof and weak to moderate QG ascent. The synoptic forcing will be strongest across Southern Colorado with less support over Northern portions of the state. Still some slight warming Friday afternoon as 700mb temperatures nudge upwards another degree. Best chance of mountain snowfall will be late Friday night and Saturday morning with improved orographic flow from the west and northwest. Snow showers will diminish late Saturday afternoon and night over the mountains. Unfortunately with this open wave, northeast Colorado will remain under a downslope northwest flow with little or no chance of any precipitation. The system does close off across southern Kansas but too little too late for any benefit to the plains. On Saturday night through Monday, broad high pressure aloft will build back into the region with dry conditions and warming temperatures. Readings will be back into the 50s over the plains by Monday. On Tuesday and Wednesday, next more potent trof will take aim over the region with colder temperatures and a chance of snow over the entire region. Both GFS and European solutions are dropping a storm system into the Great Basin and possibly the 4 corners region late Tuesday and Wednesday. However, quite a bit of variance in the models from Wednesday and beyond on the track and intensity and some of fear of the storm dropping too far south. For now the forecast will show cooler temperatures and a chance of snow. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday morning) Issued at 1055 AM MST Wed Jan 27 2021 VFR conditions expected through Thursday morning as a ridge moves overhead. Winds will be light and variable for another hour or two this morning, then a Denver cyclone will develop by midday. This cyclone boundary will remain near or directly over DEN through the afternoon, so confidence in wind directions there is low. Generally expect northerly winds to the north and west of this, and southerly winds to the south and east. Winds should go to drainage by mid evening, with yet another Denver Cyclone expected Thursday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Kriederman SHORT TERM...RPK LONG TERM...Entrekin AVIATION...Kriederman NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion
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