020
FXUS65 KBOU 050615
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1115 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers continue for portions of Park County as of late
  this evening. A Winter Weather Advisory continues through 2AM
  Thursday.

- Light mountain snow possible on Friday in the high country
  north of I-70.

- Pleasant temperatures and dry conditions are expected Thursday
  and Saturday through early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 1105 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Current radar shows the snow for the high country only lingering
in the southern third of Park County. Some additional snow of
1-2" will be possible there over the next few hours as the upper-
level low shifts off to the east. We expect the Winter Weather
Advisory to be allowed to expire at 2 AM Thursday. Some light
rain is also ongoing in far southern Lincoln County. A few more
scattered rain showers remain possible there, but this chance
quickly ends by 5 AM this morning. Lows tonight are forecast to be
similar to last night with temperatures near or just above
freezing for the plains and in the upper teens to 20s for the high
country. Thursday should be a pleasant day as a ridge aloft
briefly builds in. We expect mostly sunny skies and high
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s for the plains.

The trough on Friday has trended a bit further south since last
night, but moisture still looks minimal along with poor lift. Most
short-term guidance is showing at least some QPF for the central
and northern high country. Thus, Friday afternoon and evening now
has the chance for some light mountain snow above 8,500 ft. This
forecast remains in line with the previous package. For locations
in the high country mainly north of I-70, we are forecasting 2
inches of snow or less with perhaps a few locations approaching 3
inches. REFS DESI probabilities show the chance for any locations
in our area to receive >2 inches to be around 30% or less. RMNP,
the Mummy Range, the Indian Peaks, and the Never Summer Mountains
are most favored for the "higher" totals. Model soundings show
these locations could have a small amount of weak upslope. Some
light widely scattered rain showers could spread into Weld County
along and west of I-25, but there is only a 15% chance or less.
Otherwise, expect highs on Friday in the mid to upper 50s for the
plains with a slight increase in clouds compared to the last few
days.

From Saturday through at least Wednesday, ridging aloft will be
firmly in place for our area. Above average temperatures are likely
to prevail under mostly sunny skies. Ensemble guidance continues to
hone in on Sunday and Monday as the warmest days of the week with
high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s for the urban corridor and
highs near 70 F on the far eastern plains. High temperatures look to
stay in the low to mid 60s from Wednesday onward as the ridge shifts
a bit to the south. Any precipitation looks highly unlikely after
Friday through at least the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/...
Issued at 1048 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF package. The showers
to the south and west of the TAF sites have moved away from the
area. Winds will generally be from the northwest overnight,
turning more westerly to southwesterly for the early morning at
APA and DEN with speeds below 10kts. Models start to diverge on
wind direction for the late morning after a period of light and
variable winds. Right now, we have winds turning to the northeast,
then east, before eventually turning south in the evening at APA
and DEN. However, some models have winds going southeast in the
late morning and staying there throughout the day. Right now,
confidence is higher in the northeasterly winds developing but
this is something to keep an eye on. Luckily winds should stay
below 10kts during this time.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM MST Thursday for COZ034-037.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MV
AVIATION...AP

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion