735
FXUS65 KBOU 140551
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1051 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 10-25% chance of light rain/snow across northeast Colorado
  overnight and early Wednesday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions possible (50% chance) across
  the plains Thursday and Friday.

- A cold front will bring windy conditions and colder
  temperatures to the area on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

A cold front is making its way south-southwestward across the
plains this evening. Temperatures are not much cooler behind the
front but dew point readings are about 10-15 F higher in its
wake. The winds behind it are north-northeasterly with gusts up into
the 20-30 mph range. Area radars and surface observations are
showing some light rain showers and virga pushing south-
southeastward over the northeast corner of Colorado. I will make
some minor grid adjustments to winds, sky, pops and temperatures
based on reality as well the latest high resolution models.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

The north-northwest flow aloft will persist through tonight
around an upper level high centered over northern California and
southern Oregon. Moisture aloft is being funneled around the high
and then traveling southward across Colorado. This will continue
to result in mostly cloudy skies through tonight. There is a weak
shortwave trough embedded in the north-northwest flow aloft and a
weak cold front that will drop south across eastern Colorado
tonight. A brief gusty wind shift to the northeast will be
possible when the front moves through. Clouds will also increase
with a few weak rain/snow showers. Precipitation amounts are
expected to be light and less than a tenth inch. The clouds linger
into the morning hours while precipitation is expected to have
wrapped up. Temperatures will be cooler Wednesday, but remain
above normal with highs in the 50s across northeast Colorado.

North-northwest flow aloft continues Thursday and Friday,
strengthening Friday with the passage of a shortwave trough. Winds
increase over the eastern plains, especially Friday behind the
cold front. Winds could approach high wind criteria over the far
northeast plains late Thursday night and Friday. Other concern
will be elevated/critical fire weather conditions associated with
the windy conditions. Temperatures rebound some on Thursday ahead
of the cold front with high temperatures reaching the upper 50s to
lower 60s across northeast Colorado. On Friday, temperatures fall
to near normal with highs in the 40s. The airmass remains dry
with no chance for precipitation Thursday and Friday.

The north to northwest flow aloft will continue through the weekend
and into early next week. Models show two shortwave troughs and cold
fronts grazing eastern Colorado. One on Saturday and the second one
Monday or Tuesday. The pattern still looks dry with ridging to the
west cutting off Pacific moisture. Temperatures will be challenging
to forecast. Arctic air will be just east of the area, and a slight
model adjustment westward would bring colder air to into eastern
Colorado at times behind the cold fronts. The warm days (Sunday and
maybe Tuesday) highs are expected to reach the 50s over northeast
Colorado. Highs on the cooler/colder days may only reach the 40s and
possibly only 30s over the plains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1023 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

Bands of light precipitation are currently visible near and east of
the TAF sites, with KDEN just reporting -RA for a brief moment. A
weak cold front has moved across the TAF sites and gusts have
already largely subsided outside of KAPA still gusting between 15-17
kts. Ceilings have steadily lowered behind the front as dewpoints
have climbed about 10 degrees since its passage. Outside of moving
up timing of light showers and lowering gusts, not much adjusting
was needed for this package. Ceilings are still expected to remain
between 4,000 to 7,000 AGL through the morning, with some brief
lower CIG possible (between 015-020 AGL) mainly between 11-13Z.
Expecting ceilings to improve around 17Z. Any precipitation that
falls with passing showers is expected to be very light and should
be out of the area by around 15Z. As clouds clear out through the
day and mixing occurs, we should see winds turn back to the north
after being light and variable through the morning. VFR conditions
are expected after 17Z where they will persist through the TAF
period.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...66
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...9

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion