154
FXUS65 KBOU 111804
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1104 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  through Friday.

- Increasing chances for light mountain rain/snow and rain showers
  for portions of the plains by this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 1040 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected on Wednesday due to weak
cold air advection aloft as eastern Colorado will be situated on the
eastern edge of the well-advertized upper level ridge. However, it
will still be warm, with highs in the low-to-mid 60s across the
plains. Similar to the past few days, quiet weather will prevail
with mostly clear skies.

On Thursday and Friday, the axis of the upper level ridge will shift
east, allowing slightly warmer temperatures to return to the
region. However, ensemble guidance has trended cooler these past
few runs, so we don`t have as good of a chance to hit 70 F in the
plains. This is reflected in DESI probabilities dropping to 20-25%
chance of temperatures meeting or exceeding 70 F. Regardless, we
will stay dry across the region.

Guidance continues to hone in on a system this weekend bringing
mountain rain/snow showers and possibly precipitation to portions of
the plains. However, there are still many uncertainties with the
track and evolution of this system that will impact how much
mountain snow we will get and how widespread rain across the plains
could be. Recent runs of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble have trended
towards a stronger shortwave trekking across Colorado, with some
solutions resolving a closed low near southeast Colorado. However,
models diverge with the track of the low pressure after that, with
some tracks being too far south or east for our region to see the
bulk of the expected precipitation. As of now, ensemble guidance is
in agreement of light snow accumulations for the high country
(mainly above 8000-8500 ft) Saturday through Sunday, and increasing
chances for rain showers for our eastern plains on Sunday. It is
still too soon to tell if the rest of the plains, including the
Denver metro would see measurable precipitation from this system.

Fall-like weather will likely return by Saturday or Sunday, with
temperatures nearing seasonal normals for the first time in a while.
Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of cooler temperatures
sticking around through the rest of the forecast period. There is a
good signal that active weather will return by mid-week next week
with multiple systems providing precipitation chances for the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1039 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a fairly
diurnal wind pattern and isolated high clouds this afternoon.
Light and variable winds will hold for a few more hours before
settling on a N-NE flow. As the evening approaches, winds will
turn clockwise and reach drainage flow between 4-6z. Expect
another similar day for Thursday with light and variable winds in
the morning transitioning to a N-NE flow in the afternoon for KDEN
and KAPA. KBJC should favor a more SE direction Thursday
afternoon. Wind speeds across the sites tomorrow will be light.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...Schnell

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion