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564 FXUS65 KBOU 150528 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1128 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot weather continues through this weekend. - Prolonged hot and dry conditions will bring fire weather concerns, although we`ll likely stay shy of Red Flag criteria. - Monsoonal moisture initially lacking with only isolated to scattered afternoon/early evening storms in the mountains through Saturday. Dry plains. - More significant monsoonal moisture and cooler temperatures expected toward Monday and Tuesday, when a threat of locally heavy rainfall arrives. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026 The rinse and repeat (without the rain, of course) forecast will hold strong through Friday. The elongated ridge extending from he lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio River Valley through the Central Rockies will essentially reorganize and center itself over Wyoming and Colorado again by Friday and Saturday. This means a continuation of light, dry, and subsident easterly flow over the forecast area. There is slight moderation in the low/mid level thermal ridges as this reorganization occurs, leading to just a couple degrees of cooling in most areas Wednesday through Friday. That still means well above normal temperatures with highs mostly in the mid 90s for the plains and I-25 Urban Corridor, mostly 80s for the foothills and high valleys, and upper 60s and 70s higher mountains. Isolated to scattered showers and storms can still be expected in the mountains most days, as the high country will reside on the edge of weak monsoonal moisture and instability. Meanwhile, the plains will remain too dry and subsident with mostly clear skies prevailing. Southeast breezes, in conjunction with the heat and stress on vegetation, means persistent risk of fire growth and potentially long burn periods well into the evening hours each day. That`s despite staying below Red Flag conditions as the wind component won`t reach thresholds in the mountains, while the humidity component will remain above thresholds over the breezier plains along/east of I-25. Things get more interesting early next week as we are now more certain of the eventual arrival of monsoonal moisture. Model ensembles show just a slight uptick toward Sunday, but a greater push of moisture by Monday and Tuesday. That means a higher chance of showers and storms across the forecast area, along with an increasing threat of locally heavy rainfall. Deep layer moisture is advertised to increase with ensemble average precipitable water (PW) values increasing to around 1 inch for Denver by Sunday, and then up to 1.2 inches by Monday. At the same time, we`ll likely see a front push southward with an increase in upslope flow which typically focuses more widespread shower/storm coverage near the Front Range. Of course there will be the usual challenges of stability in this environment, but it`s certainly looking like a much more active weather pattern. The increased convection and front(s) also support cooler temperatures (highs likely in the 80s for the plains) by Tuesday. There may be even greater chances of heavy rainfall outside of this forecast period (toward the middle of next week), so we`ll keep an eye on this potentially significant transition from hot and dry weather to wet and stormy. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/... Issued at 1128 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026 VFR through Thursday. Deep but weak easterly flow will also keep the smoke away from the terminals at all heights. Convective chances near the terminals are basically zero into Thursday given easterly flow preventing storms from moving off the terrain to the west. So really, it`s about the winds. Tonight, continued strong SE winds will eventually weaken to turn to the south, especially in the next 2-4 hours. We still expect speeds to be around 10-15kt at APA and DEN, 10 kts or less at BJC. South winds will weaken after 13/14Z, and go southwest then light and variable until midday. By midday ESE winds should be the norm, gusting around 20 kts much of the afternoon into evening. Like the last few nights, robust southeast winds gusting over to 25 kts are expected at the terminals during the evening hours before going to drainage out of the south (and not as strong) after 08Z. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...Schlatter