National Weather Service Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KBOU 141953
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
153 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Dry westerly flow aloft will turn northwesterly tonight and Tuesday
as a fast moving storm system drops across the Northern Plains,
and a ridge pops up across the Great Basin and northern Rockies.
At the surface, a cold front will push southward across the plains
late this evening into the early morning hours. This will bring
cooler temperatures back to the plains on Tuesday, with highs in
the mid 50s to lower 60s, coolest over the northeastern sections.
Mountain areas will see just a couple degrees cooling with slight
cold advection aloft. Outside of perhaps a small deck of stratus
on the plains in the post frontal airmass, we expect mostly clear
skies to prevail.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

An upper level ridge will build over the central Rockies starting
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough pushes to the
south. Increased subsidence combined with a deepening lee side low
will help to bring warmer temperatures to the region with close
to 10 degrees above normal with highs in the 70s for Wednesday.
For Thursday, the next upper level trough will move onshore over
CA and bring upper level southwest flow to the region. Another
lee-side surface trough will form over the eastern plains helping
to pull in dry and warmer SW flow at the surface. This will
increase temperatures close to 80 degrees for the plains and drop
relative humidity levels, which could become a fire danger
concern. The upper trough will continue to progress eastward and
turns flow more westerly as the trough enters Utah. This will be a
quick moving system, but it looks like there will be enough
moisture embedded in the flow aloft to produce showers over the
mountains. Current model wetbulb fields show a slight chance of
snow above 10,000 feet with downsloping over the plains keeping
lower elevations dry. Winds will also increase over the higher
elevations influence from and upper jet. High temperatures will be
varied for Friday with higher elevations staying in the 30s to
lower 40s along the higher foothills and mountain valleys and 60s
across the plains.

The next system that could bring precipitation to the region will
be Saturday into Sunday. An upper level trough will drop down from
the northwest bringing increased lift by 00z Sunday. Warmer, 60
degree highs on Saturday will turn for Sunday and a slight chance
for rain and snow. Models still differ on exact path but will
maintain a cooler and more wet pattern for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Winds are showing quite a bit of variation across Denver, with
KBJC on the edge of stronger westerlies, KDEN in northwesterly,
and KAPA in a more easterly component. Peak gusts in the fully
mixed areas from the west/northwest are reaching at least 25
knots. The winds should trend a little more northwesterly through
01Z, before returning to normal drainage winds around 10 knots
03Z-05Z. A weak cold front is expected to move through KDEN
around 06Z tonight, with a chance of a stratus deck and ILS
conditions after 09Z. At this time, it appears moisture is limited
so will only have SCT clouds around 4000 feet in the TAF for now.
Light easterly winds around 5-10 knots expected most of Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2019

The near critical Red Flag conditions on the northern border area
and portions of the high mountain valleys will ease quickly by
sunset with much lighter winds and cooler temperatures. A weak
cold front will push across the plains and back into the foothills
tonight, which will increase humidity levels for Tuesday.
However, mountain valleys will remain dry with low humidity.
Fortunately, winds will be a little lighter on Tuesday so critical
fire danger conditions will not be met.

Dry and warm conditions will return by mid-week with relative
humidity values dropping into the teens Wednesday and Thursday
with highs approaching the lower 80s by Thursday. At this time
winds remain light, however conditions will need to be monitored
for any possible highlights.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
FIRE WEATHER...Barjenbruch

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion