621
FXUS65 KBOU 101925
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
125 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s this
  afternoon.

- Summerlike warmth and drier weather this week, with highs in the
  80s for the lower elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

It`s about as average of an early/mid May day as you could imagine
today. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 60s, with
light winds and some scattered fair weather cumulus evident on
satellite. Forecast highs are right near normal (upper 60s/low
70s) for later this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies continuing
through the day.

The upcoming week will be much warmer, with well above normal
highs forecast most days as a ridge builds across the
southwestern CONUS. Monday should see highs reach the mid 80s
across most of the I-25 corridor and plains. There could be some
locally critical fire weather conditions across the high country
where winds will be strongest, with weaker winds across the urban
corridor and most of the plains.

A weak front is expected to push through sometime on Tuesday,
though this will only manage to cool temperatures down into the
upper 70s/low 80s across the lower elevations. A slight increase
in moisture and increased instability could lead to a few showers
and an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon across the Front
Range, though widespread precipitation is still unlikely.

The warmest temperatures of the week will likely come on Wednesday
or Thursday as the 500mb ridge axis shifts east. The thermal ridge
axis also shifts over the region during that time with a
transition to mid/upper-level southwesterly flow. A few ensemble
members still hint at some >90F temperatures though most
deterministic and statistical guidance is firmly in the mid/upper
80s.

Forecast confidence breaks down quickly towards the end of the
week. A closed upper low is expected to reach the northern
California coast on Wednesday, but forecast diverge quickly after
that. The most probable scenario is that this upper low shears out
and is picked up and lifted well to our north... though a handful
of solutions still are slower and drive the cutoff low somewhere
near or southwest of the CWA (12z ECMWF, 00z GEM). The majority of
ensemble members are still rather dry in this period, and
unsurprisingly NBM PoPs don`t exceed 30-40% at any point from
Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. There
have been stratocumulus clouds for all three terminals this
morning. As of 1730z, satellite imagery shows few to sct clouds
are still lingering over KDEN and KAPA around 4000 ft. These
clouds will decrease by 19z at the latest giving way to improved
ceilings and only few to sct high-level clouds for the rest of
today.

Winds will be light (< 12 knots) throughout the forecast period
at all 3 sites. Winds are currently light and vrb, but will
eventually settle to be more easterly this afternoon by around
21z. Drainage winds will kick in around 04z to 06z and persist
through the night. For tomorrow, winds will slowly turn to NE/E
again by the afternoon with wind speeds still expected under 10
knots. There will generally only be few to sct high-level clouds
tonight and tomorrow.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...MV

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion