833
FXUS65 KBOU 111754
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1054 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of mountain snow today through Thursday. Travel impacts
  expected by mid to late afternoon through Thursday morning.

- Chance of light rain showers over the plains Thursday through
  Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 1119 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

There is some light snow falling along the divide in Larimer,
Grand and Boulder Counties at this time. Not much cloudiness over
the plains at this time. Today`s high temperature in Denver; 46
degrees was the coolest daily high so far this month out of ten
days, and that reading was still 2 degrees above normal for the
day.

Models have strong west-southwesterly flow aloft over the CWA
tonight through Friday morning, with jet level speeds in the 100-130
knot range that entire period.  There will be fairly deep moisture
embedded in the flow Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.
Cross sections indicate mountain top wind directions to go west-
northwesterly for a few hours Wednesday evening, which may enhance
orographic snow production there. I ran the Rhea-Thaler
Orographic Snow Model, and snowfall amounts were under 10 inches
in all of our the mountain locations. That was even at a 10:1
ratio, and we may not even have that good of a ratio with as warm
as models indicate it to be at 700 mb. There is also little or no
synoptic energy progged to help with snow production. The
widespread snow in the mountains should decrease significantly
Thursday overnight, then we`ll go with scattered light snow
showers into late day Friday.

The upper ridge over the CWA through Thursday night will push east
as a weak upper trough moves eastward into the CWA by later Friday
and Friday night. There is very little synoptic scale energy with
this trough.  Over the plains, the ECMWF shows a cold front and
upslope along with limited QPF on Thursday into Thursday evening.
The rest of the models do not show this. Will decrease the pops
over the plains a bit this update.

For temperatures, the plains remain on the warm side at 10 to 15
degrees above normal for the highs on Wednesday through Friday.
Readings will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

For the later days, models are in good agreement showing upper
ridging for Colorado both Saturday and Sunday.  Southwesterly flow
aloft is progged to move in Sunday night and continue over the state
through Tuesday. Jet level speeds get above 100 knots from Monday
night through Tuesday night.  Moisture is sparse on Saturday, then
some mid and upper level moisture Sunday and Monday. There is a tad
of lower level moisture in the mountains on Tuesday, perhaps
warranting "scattered" pops as best, otherwise dry in the mountains.
For the plains, dry all four days with above normal temperatures.
There could be some critical fire weather conditions by Tuesday
over the plains with increased westerly winds by afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1053 AM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions will occur through at least 18z Thursday. There is
a scattered mid-level cloud deck at BJC that we expect to be in
place for most of the period. Currently, winds are light and
variable at all 3 sites. RRFS soundings show that the inversion currently
in place will mix out in the early afternoon. This will lead to
winds out of the northwest at DEN and APA, but not as strong as
at BJC. Winds will be out of the west at BJC and gusting to near
20 to 25 KTS. Overnight, winds will become variable once again
and then drainage at APA and DEN. Winds will be variable
throughout the night at BJC before becoming NW tomorrow morning.

By late morning into the early afternoon tomorrow, we have
introduced a PROB30 at DEN to account for a low chance of rain
showers. As a result, ceilings could lower to near or below 6000
feet. By mid-to-late afternoon tomorrow, winds at DEN will become
northwesterly once again.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ031.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Thursday for COZ033-034.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...MV

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion