452
FXUS65 KBOU 011117
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
517 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions will be present in South Park,
  the southern foothills, and the Palmer Divide today due to
  warm, dry and windy conditions.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected
  Thursday and Friday especially along and south of I-70.

- There will be very limited coverage of showers and storms
  Wednesday and Thursday with the best chance over the far
  northeast corner of Colorado.

- Near normal temperatures with scattered showers and storms on
  July 4th.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The upper level pattern of a weak longwave trough over the western
US and an anomalously strong ridge over the eastern US will
continue through Saturday. In-between these features,
southwesterly flow aloft is expected over Colorado each day. This
will lead to multiple days of elevated to critical fire weather
conditions and an isolated storm chance nearly every
afternoon/evening. The fire weather conditions are discussed in
the fire weather section below.

Going day by day, there will be a shortwave trough that departs
Colorado early this morning leaving slight subsidence and ridging
behind. There will be very minimal shower and storm activity
during the afternoon due to the lack of instability. This evening
and later tonight, better instability advects westward into
Colorado with a slight shortwave trough moving in. Coverage of
showers and storms may increase during this time with areas to the
north and east of Fort Morgan seeing the best chances.

In a lot of ways, Thursday will be nearly a repeat of Wednesday.
There will be near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
with very limited coverage of showers and storms during the day.
Isolated coverage of showers and storms will develop in the
evening with the best chance near the Colorado/Nebraska border.

Friday looks to be the hottest day of this week with highs
reaching the mid 90s across the plains. This is due to increased
500 heights and temperatures as a slight ridge in the 500 mb flow
moves over our forecast area. With such dry conditions at the
surface and the lack of forcing and instability, almost no
showers will develop.

Models time a weak shortwave trough to come over northern Colorado
Saturday evening. At the same time, a weak surface low pressure
center will develop over southeast Colorado turning winds to the
northeast in northeast Colorado. This will increase moisture and
decrease the high temperatures down to near normal. Scattered
showers and storms are expected to form in the afternoon and
evening and a couple could be strong to severe. Those expecting to
view firework shows Saturday evening will have to keep an eye on
the forecast.

A broader ridge is expected to build over the western US Sunday
into next week. This will allow temperatures to increase well into
the 90s across the plains of Colorado. Afternoon showers and
storms will be possible during this period mainly over the higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/...
Issued at 514 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Light winds this morning will be more westerly than normal at DEN
and APA.

Wind speed and direction will be difficult to forecast
during the late morning and afternoon today. This is because a
DCVZ will likely setup over the southeast Denver metro. DEN
usually ends up having moderate easterly winds for much of the day
in these scenarios with winds turning more northeast in the late
afternoon and northwest in the evening. It appears the DCVZ will
setup right near APA. APA could see southeast or even southwest
winds tomorrow if the boundary is to the north, however, they
would see northwest winds if the boundary is to the south.
Otherwise, there is a small chance (20%) that virga showers
develop over the terminals late tomorrow afternoon. It is possible
variable gusty winds develop from those virga showers.
Additionally, smoke may impact operations during the late
afternoon and evening as fires across the southwest US strengthen
in the afternoon.

Winds will slowly back towards drainage Wednesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Southwest winds are expected to mix down to the surface across
South Park, the southern half of the southern foothills, and the
Palmer Divide this afternoon with gusts up to 35 mph. With
relative humidity reaching as low as 8 percent in these areas, a
Red Flag Warning was issued. The I-70 corridor mountains and the
northern portion of the southern foothills will likely have weaker
winds as a Denver cyclone that develops over southeast Denver
will help to counter the stronger southwesterly winds aloft.
Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch for zone 212 was canceled
although elevated conditions will still exist.

Similar conditions will exist on Thursday but with slightly less
wind across South Park, the southern foothills, and the Palmer
Divide. The winds will be marginal for any fire weather highlights
with gusts around 25 mph. Elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions are expected.

Friday looks to be the driest day of this week with relative
humidity dropping to 4 or 5 percent across the plains and southern
foothills. Winds will be on the lighter side so elevated fire
weather conditions are expected.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
COZ214-216-241.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...Danielson
FIRE WEATHER...Danielson

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion