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197 FXUS65 KBOU 041228 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 528 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly above normal temperatures on Wednesday with well above normal temperatures Thursday through Monday. - Pattern change likely next week which will lead to more normal temperatures and multiple chances of precipitation. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 1015 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026 A shortwave trough is moving across northeast Colorado this evening providing weak QG ascent. At the surface, somewhat moist northerly flow is aiding in create scattered snow showers. The Palmer Divide will see the majority of the snow showers that fall across the plains tonight as the northerly flow is upslope flow there while it is downslope for the South Platte River Valley. Eastern Douglas and western Elbert Counties could receive up to an inch of snow before the snow dissipates around midnight to 2AM. In the mountains, the north-northwest flow has allowed some snow showers to continue this evening. The northwest slopes of the Front Range mountains could receive another inch before snow showers end around 2-4AM. The shortwave trough departs the area early Wednesday morning leaving QG descent behind it. Dry air will move in and Wednesday will be mostly sunny with slightly above normal temperatures. A strong and broad ridge will move over the Intermountain West on Thursday. This ridge has 500 mb heights over the Pacific Northwest that are 2.5 sigma above normal. This strong ridge will lead to a long period of dry and mild weather for our forecast area. The plains will see highs in the 60s Thursday through Monday. The only concern during this period will be elevated fire weather conditions near the Cheyenne Ridge on Saturday and Monday due to the mild, dry, and somewhat breezy conditions. Highlights are not expected at this time but if the wind forecast increases with gusts up to 35 mph, highlights could be needed. There is still optimism for a pattern change beginning around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. This pattern change would usher in a more zonal and progressive upper level pattern with multiple shortwaves passing through Colorado. Global ensemble data indicates the mountains of Colorado are likely to see multiple snow events. Ensembles are less confident in precipitation occurring over the plains. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday/... Issued at 440 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Ceilings have begun lifting across all terminals as dry air and subsident flow enters the area. Besides a few mid-level clouds (between 9000 and 12,000 ft) in the early morning, expect mostly clear skies throughout the day today. Guidance has continued to struggle with the dominating wind pattern for today. Generally, expect light winds (