656
FXUS65 KBOU 102327
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
527 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summerlike warmth and drier weather this week, with highs in the
  80s for the lower elevations.

- Warmest temperatures of the week (mid to upper 80s for the
  plains) on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

It`s about as average of an early/mid May day as you could imagine
today. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 60s, with
light winds and some scattered fair weather cumulus evident on
satellite. Forecast highs are right near normal (upper 60s/low
70s) for later this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies continuing
through the day.

The upcoming week will be much warmer, with well above normal
highs forecast most days as a ridge builds across the
southwestern CONUS. Monday should see highs reach the mid 80s
across most of the I-25 corridor and plains. There could be some
locally critical fire weather conditions across the high country
where winds will be strongest, with weaker winds across the urban
corridor and most of the plains.

A weak front is expected to push through sometime on Tuesday,
though this will only manage to cool temperatures down into the
upper 70s/low 80s across the lower elevations. A slight increase
in moisture and increased instability could lead to a few showers
and an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon across the Front
Range, though widespread precipitation is still unlikely.

The warmest temperatures of the week will likely come on Wednesday
or Thursday as the 500mb ridge axis shifts east. The thermal ridge
axis also shifts over the region during that time with a
transition to mid/upper-level southwesterly flow. A few ensemble
members still hint at some >90F temperatures though most
deterministic and statistical guidance is firmly in the mid/upper
80s.

Forecast confidence breaks down quickly towards the end of the
week. A closed upper low is expected to reach the northern
California coast on Wednesday, but forecast diverge quickly after
that. The most probable scenario is that this upper low shears out
and is picked up and lifted well to our north... though a handful
of solutions still are slower and drive the cutoff low somewhere
near or southwest of the CWA (12z ECMWF, 00z GEM). The majority of
ensemble members are still rather dry in this period, and
unsurprisingly NBM PoPs don`t exceed 30-40% at any point from
Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Winds
have been light and easterly to northeasterly for most of this
afternoon. They should continue to be light (< 12 knots)
throughout the forecast period at all 3 sites.

Drainage winds are expected to kick in around 04z to 06z tonight and
persist through the night. For tomorrow, winds will slowly turn
to NE/E again by the afternoon once the inversion mixes out with
wind speeds still expected under 10 knots. There is a low (20%)
chance of 15 to 20 kt downslope winds occurring tomorrow
afternoon that would mostly affect KBJC. There will generally only
be few to sct mid- and/or high-level clouds tonight and tomorrow.
Drainage winds will occur again tomorrow night after 04z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...MV

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion