555
FXUS65 KBOU 250523
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1023 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry for the plains through Friday with record high
  temperatures likely

- The mountains will see light snow with the valleys seeing light
  rain/snow showers Thursday into Friday.

- Increased fire danger Friday for the foothills and portions of
  the urban corridor.

- A widespread snow possible for our whole forecast area Saturday
  night into Sunday with light amounts. Much colder temperatures
  expected to accompany the snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 214 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Record or near-record highs are forecast on Christmas Day with
most of the urban corridor seeing highs in the upper 60s to low
70s. The record high in Denver is 69 set in 2005 and that will
likely (70% chance) be tied or broken. In the mountains, it will
be mild with a chance of snow as a trough will approach Colorado
from the west. The Park Range may get 2-5" of snow from these
brief but intense snow showers that are expected. Other locations
along the western slope of the Front Range mountains may see 1-3".
Otherwise, a mountain wave will setup over the Front Range
mountains late tonight and will last through much of the day
Thursday. This wave will produce gusts between 50-60 mph over
most of the mountains and foothills with some higher values in the
windy locations of Boulder and Larimer Counties.

On Friday, a similar weather pattern will be in place. Highs will
be similarly warm with record highs possible. Drier air will move
into our forecast area which will limit the snow potential in the
mountains. However, a couple inches of additional snow
accumulation is possible in the Park Range as the best moisture
will stay that far north.

The mild and dry conditions Thursday and Friday along with the
gusty mountain wave will lead to elevated to near-critical fire
weather conditions especially on Friday. This is discussed in
detail in the fire weather section below.

A strong positively-tilted trough will move into western Colorado
on Saturday. There will be cold air advection in the low levels
which will lead to cooler temperatures on Saturday (but still
above normal). On Saturday night, a cold front associated with
this trough will move through our forecast area. This will drop
temperatures significantly with highs on Sunday potentially
staying in the 20s across lower elevations. There will be a brief
period of an over-running snow event Saturday night into Sunday
across the plains and foothills. Southwesterly flow aloft with
good mid-level frontogenesis will develop a couple bands of snow.
Models have been trending toward higher QPF amounts for this
system roughly in the 0.15-0.25" range for the Denver metro. The
confidence of a light snow is increasing with a broad range of
forecast values from 1-4" of snow across the I-25 corridor with
the higher values being closer to the Palmer Divide due to
upslope, northeasterly flow. In the mountains and foothills,
higher amounts are expected potentially exceeding 6" above 10,000
feet.

Sunday night will be cold due to fresh snow cover and clearing
skies. Lows could reach the single digits across the plains.

The pattern returns to warm and dry for the majority of next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/...
Issued at 1020 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Winds will remaon drainage overnight thru Thursday morning. In the
19Z-20Z time period winds will become WSW at APA, North at DIA
and West at BJC. By 23Z winds will become light NW or WNW and then
switch to drainage by 02z Thu evening. VFR conditions will remain
in place thru the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

Thursday will be windy in the Front Range mountains and foothills
with gusts between 50-60 mph. Winds will be lighter across the
plains with gusts mainly staying below 25 mph. The exception to
that are locations near the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide where
gusts could reach 35 mph. Relative humidity is expected to
increase as moisture from an approaching low pressure system will
move into Colorado. Minimum relative humidity is expected to stay
above 20 percent across all of our forecast area. Some pockets of
elevated fire weather conditions may develop in the lower
foothills and near the Cheyenne Ridge but no critical conditions
are expected.

Drier air will move in on Friday along with mild conditions.
Minimum relative humidity will drop to 10-15% in the lower
foothills and adjacent plains. Gusty winds will accompany the dry
air and near-critical fire weather conditions are expected for the
lower foothills and I-25 corridor. The magnitude of the wind
gusts are in question so no fire weather highlights were issued at
this time. Wind gusts may reach close to 50 mph in those
locations or, if the mountain wave stays at higher elevations,
gusts could stay around 25-35 mph.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...Danielson

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion