854
FXUS65 KBOU 160537
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1137 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat builds through midweek, with the warming trend peaking
  Wednesday. Some plains locations could see afternoon highs in
  the mid to upper 90s.

- Increasing fire weather concerns on Tuesday with widespread
  critical fire weather conditions possible on Wednesday.

- More active weather may return by the weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Overall, it will be a hot, dry, and windy week with limited rain
chances. Fire weather concerns will increase throughout the week
likely peaking for our area on Wednesday. A ~590 mb ridge over the
southwestern United States will remain the driving force of our
weather for the majority of the week. The jet stream will
generally remain just to our north and east this week, but will
briefly move into Colorado on Wednesday.

The rest of today will be nice with temperatures a touch below
average- right around 80 degrees. Current GOES-19 satellite
imagery shows cumulus clouds over the western Palmer Divide and in
the mountains. There is a very low chance of rain showers (around
10%) for the southern mountains and Palmer Divide this afternoon
into the early evening with little to no measurable precipitation.
After today, the heat is on with our forecast calling for
temperatures in the 90s for nearly all the plains on Tuesday,
Wednesday, and Friday.

Tuesday will feature highs for the plains right around 90 degrees
as the ridge to the southwest strengthens and moves a bit closer.
Winds in the 500 to 700 mb layer will be a little stronger-
around 35 knots. Therefore, it will be another windy day in the
mountains with gusts of 30 to 40 mph expected and some stronger
wind gusts of up to about 30 mph possibly spreading into northern
Larimer and Weld counties in the afternoon.

Wednesday is still shaping up to be a very hot day for our area.
Northeast Colorado will be located in the right exit region of a
500 mb jet. Winds in the 500 to 700 mb level could reach as high
as 50 knots. This will promote subsidence, low RH values, and some
decent downsloping winds (compressional heating) putting us at
risk of fire and/or heat risk headlines. Ensemble guidance
continues to run a touch cooler than the deterministic models over
the last several runs- low to mid 90s vs. mid to upper 90s for
the Urban Corridor. The biggest question in this forecast remains
the timing of the surface cold front on Wednesday
afternoon/evening. The current forecast continues to lean toward
an afternoon arrival in our northeast counties and thus high
temperatures closer to 90 degrees in those locations with mid 90s
for the Urban Corridor. For now, there is still enough uncertainty
on the fuel status and with the timing of the front that we have
held off on any fire headlines for the Urban Corridor and adjacent
plains, but have issued a Fire Weather Watch for the mountains
and high valleys. See the Fire Weather Discussion for more
information. Heat risk headlines for Wednesday are possible,
especially for the Urban Corridor and adjacent plains, but we will
likely fall just short of criteria.

The cold front will bring one day of minor relief on Thursday. It
will be similar to today with temperatures back into the low to
mid 80s. The ridge will build back in on Friday over the southwest
United States and send high temperatures right back to above
average. By this weekend, the ridge will somewhat break down and
low rain and/or thunderstorm chances could enter the forecast
associated with a trough. Zonal flow looks to take hold early next
week with high temperatures generally still above average.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1119 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds are
currently light (214-217-218.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MV
AVIATION...MAI
FIRE WEATHER...MV

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion