376
FXUS65 KBOU 092323
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
523 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers this afternoon/evening. A few weak
  thunderstorms are also possible. Rainfall amountswill be light
  (less than 0.10").

- A brief cool down Friday with scattered rain showers. Isolated
  thunderstorms are also possible.

- Scattered showersSaturday with a few thunderstorms, mainly
  over the mountains andfar northeast plains.

- Warm and dry Sunday and Monday, with breezy/windy conditions
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Scattered showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon. Moisture continues to be limited, which
will keep rainfall amounts light. Gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph
will be possible around the showers and storms.

A weak cold front drops south across eastern Colorado this
evening. Lift from the front may produce additional scattered
showers this evening.Low level moisture begins to increase, but
not enough during the evening to enhance rainfall. Low level flow
turns southeasterly by Friday morning, ushering low level moisture
and low clouds over the eastern plains. A Denver cyclone forms
and likely pulls the cooler air and low clouds westward over the
northern parts of the urban corridor. A convergent zone develops
by afternoon and along this, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to form. As this activity progresses
eastward, it will encounter the cooler more stable airmass and
should dissipate. Across the mountains, the airmass becomes
unstable during the afternoon with scattered high-based showers
and isolated thunderstorms expected.

For Saturday through Monday, southwest flow aloft will prevail
during this time frame. An upper levellow will move across
California this weekend. It then weakens into a large trough with
at least two shortwave troughs passing through it. A shortwave
trough embedded in the southwest flow ahead of the main trough
will track across the Central Rockies on Saturday. Scattered
afternoon and early evening showers are expected to develop. A few
weak thunderstorms are also possible. Limited moisture will keep
rainfall amounts light. Flow aloft slowly increases as the trough
approaches the region, becoming strong on Monday. Breezy winds are
expected on Sunday and it may be windy on Monday if this
patterncontinues to hold. Temperatures will be above normal with
dry conditions, leading to possible elevated to critical fire
weather conditions Sunday and Monday.

Models have generally trended quicker and weaker as the upper
level trough moves across the Central Rockies. Cooler and
unsettled weather is still likely on Tuesday. Chances for heavier
precipitation have decreased, but it is still possible if a
shortwave trough intensifies into a closed low as it rotates
through the longwave trough. This is not uncommon, but the
location needs to be just right. A warming and drying trend is
expected for Wednesday and Thursday behind the exiting system.
There`s still considerable uncertainty during this period,
especially on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 517 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals through
the TAF period.

Scattered -SHRA with ISO -TSRA will continue to impact the metro
area through 02-03Z, producing VRB gusts 21-26 kts. Activity will
subside mid-evening with prevailing winds becoming light and VRB
for the overnight period and through ~15Z Fri.

Friday, a Denver cyclone look to set up early to the south of
KDEN, with enhanced SE winds through 20-22Z for KDEN/KAPA.
Thereafter, wind direction uncertainty increases notably.
Generally favoring prevailing N/NW for KDEN given preferred
southern placement of the cyclone. Nonetheless, SCT -TSRA activity
should develop after 20Z and will lead to variability in winds
from outflows, with gusts up to 25-30 kts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...BRQ

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion