261
FXUS65 KBOU 080008
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
608 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased moisture expected to bring an uptick in shower and
  storm coverage this afternoon and evening, with an isolated
  severe wind threat across the plains.

- Higher probabilities of thunderstorms with a few strong to
  severe storms from the Front Range eastward on Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Hot temperatures arrive Saturday lasting through at least
  Tuesday with a minimal chance of any thunderstorms for heat
  relief.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Visible satellite imagery shows convective clouds have formed
across the higher terrain today. In addition, it shows a decent
amount of smoke in our CWA to the south of I-70. The smoke,
combined with the heat, is helping to create unpleasant
conditions outside this afternoon.

The coverage of the showers and storms will be between 30-50%
across our forecast area today. Dew points have remained elevated
despite what the high resolution models had expected. KFNL, KLMO,
and KBDU all had dew points in the low 50s at 1:15pm resulting in
better instability than forecast. This may lead to more intense
updrafts that lead to a few severe wind gusts from the foothills
across the eastern plains. While some areas will see brief heavy
rain, most areas will see little to no rainfall.

The center of the ridge of high pressure aloft will slide
southwestward Wednesday and Thursday. This will allow for slightly
better 500 and 250 mb flow aloft each day resulting in deep layer
shear between 25-35 knots on Wednesday and 30-40 knots on
Thursday. With moderate east-northeasterly surface flow bringing
in moisture and instability, strong to severe storms are expected
each day. SPC has the eastern plains outlined in a slight risk for
severe storms with damaging wind gusts the primary threat each
day. The storms, clouds, and increased low level moisture will be
able to cool temperatures as well. Highs on Wednesday across the
plains will be in the low 90s with the upper 80s expected on
Thursday.

Instability will weaken on Friday as somewhat cooler conditions
are expected. Shower and storm coverage will decrease to isolated
coverage.

An anomalously strong ridge will develop on Saturday and will
position itself roughly over Wyoming to South Dakota Sunday
through Tuesday. There will be very warm air aloft with 500 mb
temperatures roughly -3 to -5 C over our forecast area during this
period. This will suppress the chance for storms and cloud cover.
With plenty of sunshine, temperatures will be well above normal.
The interesting thing about the position of this ridge is that
southeast winds look likely to develop across almost our entire
forecast area. If this verifies, it will actually lead to moist,
upslope flow across the plains and this will help to keep
temperatures below 100 degrees in most areas. If the winds don`t
end up being easterly and keep more of a southwesterly component,
temperatures may soar above 100 degrees across the I-25 corridor
which may lead to Heat Advisories. To the west of the Continental
Divide, the likely downslope, southeasterly winds will result in
record high temperatures. Highs may reach the mid 90s in the
Middle Park and the low 90s in North Park.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 606 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Current radar imagery shows outflows lingering near the Denver metro
area as a few lightning strikes over the foothills. We expect
shower and thunderstorm activity to diminish by 02Z-04Z and winds
to turn to light SSW drainage at KDEN and KAPA, while KBJC stays
more westerly to variable at times. We have opted to keep smoke
out of the TAF for tomorrow given that winds aloft are expected to
turn to the NW overnight which would help relieve smoke
concentrations.

Winds tomorrow will start out light and variable before shifting to
the NE in the early afternoon. If a cyclone forms, KAPA would
likely experience SE winds. Thunderstorms are expected to start
developing over foothills in the early afternoon and will be
tracking east and over the airports between 20Z and 02Z. The
primary concern will be dry microbursts and gusty outflows, up to
35-40KT.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...AA

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion